What are the Killing Numbers of Tornadoes? A Study by Walker Ashley, a Professor at Northern Illinois University, and Author of a Paper on Changing Tornado Patterns

There have already been at least 68 fatalities from severe storms in just over three months into 2023. This number is staggering, considering the average number of tornado deaths we see in an entire year is 71.

WalkerAshley, a professor at Northern Illinois University and author of a recent paper on changing tornado patterns, said that they are in the experiment. Changes are coming to the fundamental ingredients that create a severe storm. It’s a question of how much and to what scale?”

Some tornadoes are caused by rare supercell thunderstorms. To form, tornadoes need moist, warm air near the ground. But they also need a strong, vertical wind shear, which is caused by wind changing direction and speed between the ground and higher elevations. Air begins to spin horizontally in a cylinder-like shape. As that increases in speed, it narrows and begins to form a tornado.

Research shows nighttime tornadoes are more than twice as deadly as tornadoes that occur in the daylight. People are sleeping makes spotting tornadoes hard, but it’s the biggest reason.

“A breakdown in warning dissemination appears to coincide with the overnight hours as most people are asleep during this period and fail to receive critical warning information,” the study suggests.

The Southeast: How tornadoes and supercells have multiplied in the last 20 years and how they are preventing them from becoming more severe

There also tend to be fewer basements and underground shelters in the Southeast because of the moist soil, which forces people to seek shelter above ground, making it more difficult to survive a violent tornado.

Those storms have held an incredible amount of moisture, with “lots of snow, lots of rain and tornadoes in Los Angeles,” said Bill Bunting, the chief of forecast operations at the Storm Prediction Center. They have maintained their intensity as they have tracked east.

“These very strong wind fields, very strong surface cyclones developing can contribute to heightened severe weather potential as those systems get farther east,” Bunting said.

Winter was also warm across a large swath of the Eastern US, resulting in fewer cold fronts. Severe weather is kept at bay by cold air since storms need warm air and humidity to thrive. The warm winter season gave rise to more ingredients that created strong storms outside of the traditional severe season.

While storm fatigue might be setting in, this is the time of year when the most tornadoes typically occur, and the weather will most likely stay active for the next two months.

Tornado watches are on the rise across the South, with counties in Mississippi seeing the highest increase over the last 20 years, according to the Storm Prediction Center.

Supercells are projected to become more numerous in the eastern United States and less prevalent in the Great Plains, according to a study. Supercells and their perils will likely increase in late winter and early spring, which is when the storms usually start.

As the outlook on severe weather looks grim, the best thing to do is to stay vigilant and be prepared. If you know what to do when storms come, you can save your life.