The Ukraine Crisis and the War in the Context of Security: Why Vladimir Putin isn’t going to stay in Ukraine, but that’s what he wants

The war is threatening to Ukraine and Europe and poses a security challenge to the world. It is more than that. Putin’s war threatens to put a stake through the heart of the international system created after World War II, which so far has prevented another world war, and should be opposed by any nation that rejects archaic notions of empire and wars of conquest.

Even if President Zelenskyy concluded that we should negotiate to stop the punishment, we should. I don’t think he can do that anymore because of the conviction of the Ukrainian people.”

At a conference in Sea Island, Ga., run by The Cipher Brief, a group of people in the national security community gather and look at the big picture on global security.

The day when Putin andXi smiled for the camera in Beijing was a significant turning point in the country’s history. The war didn’t turn out as expected, but it did make it clear that democracies need to push back against belligerent antidemocratic regimes and keep them from joining forces.

The conflict needs to be ended with a Ukrainian victory on the battlefield, according to a top Ukrainian official.

But Paul Kolbe, a former CIA officer who runs the Intelligence Project at Harvard’s Kennedy School, says the Russian leader is not looking for a way out of the conflict. In fact, he says, just the opposite. “Putin’s muscle memory when he runs into an obstacle is to escalate,” said Kolbe. There are a number of tricks he can pull out to try and undermine the West’s confidence in him.

Over the past 10 days, Russia has effectively launched a new front with long-range missile and drone strikes directed at civilian targets in the capital Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities.

The annexation is a big deal. The think tank is run by Dmitri Alperovitch and he says that Putin is betting his presidency will stay in Ukraine.

“That’s basically a burning of bridges,” said Alperovitch. This means that this war is likely to continue for a long time, as long as he has the power and money to continue fighting, and as long as he doesn’t lose.

However, Ukraine’s civilians remain extremely vulnerable in the face of Russian air strikes. This is the blackmail of energy, which involves cutting off gas supplies, shutting off electricity, and bombing electric substations. He said that Putin’s strategy would cause pain. “When your kids are dying, you’re going to keep fighting no matter what, because your economy of your country is in dire straits,” he said. And I think he’s miscalculated on this front.”

The Kremlin is Not Enough: The Cold War Between the Soviets and the U.S. Is Already Coming to an End

The war was not brought up by anyone at the Georgia conference, in a ballroom filled with experienced national security types. The former CIA official said “most wars end with some sort of negotiated solution, whether that comes from stalemate or defeat, but I don’t see any prospects of talks in the near term.”

This war began with a Russian invasion in 2014, he noted, and is now as intense as it’s ever been. Greg is an NPR national security correspondent. Follow him @gregmyre1.

Two administration officials say that President Joe Biden and his national security team do not believe it is time to make a push for talks over Ukraine, and that neither is Secretary of State Antony Blinken nor national security adviser Jake Sullivan.

The result is a growing debate inside the administration over whether Ukraine’s recent gains on the battlefield should spark a renewed effort to seek some sort of negotiated end to the fighting, according to officials.

Milley’s push for peace has spilled into the public in recent days, just as Ukraine takes back the city of Kherson. In comments at the Economic Club of New York on Wednesday, Milley praised the Ukrainian army for fighting Russia to a stalemate, but said that an outright military victory is out of reach.

Administration officials were unsurprised by the comments, but also concerned that the administration could be seen as divided in the eyes of the Kremlin.

The internal debate comes as senior US officials – including Sullivan – have in recent weeks been urging Ukraine to signal that it is still open to diplomatic discussions with Russia, even after Zelensky signed a decree in early October ruling out negotiations with Putin.

In internal deliberations, officials said Milley has sought to make it clear that he is not urging a Ukrainian capitulation, but rather that he believes now is an optimal time to drive toward an end to the war before it drags into spring or beyond, leading to more death and destruction without changing the front lines.

The view is not seen across the administration. One official explained that the State Department is on the opposite side of the pole from Milley. Military brass are more passionate about diplomacy than US diplomats because of that dynamic.

Milley’s position comes as the US military has dug deep into US weapons stockpiles to support the Ukrainians and is currently scouring the globe for materials to support Ukraine heading into winter – such as heaters and generators – which has raised concerns about how long this war can be sustained, officials said.

The US intends to buy 100,000 rounds of artillery ammunition from South Korean arms manufacturers to provide to Ukraine, a US official said, part of a broader effort to find available weaponry for the high-intensity battles unfolding in Ukraine. As part of the deal, the US will purchase 100,000 rounds of 155mm howitzer ammunition, which will then be transferred to Ukraine through the US.

The US-China Relationship at the G20 Summit: Predictions from a Viewpoint from CNN’s Fareed Zakaria

State Department spokesperson Ned Price would not say Thursday whether the State Department agrees with Milley’s position. In recent months, the US side with Zelensky has said that a diplomatic solution is needed.

The United States is prepared to support Ukraine for the long haul in the war against Russia and is confident Kyiv will prevail, senior Biden administration officials told CNN’s Fareed Zakaria at a unique CNN town hall marking the one-year anniversary of Russia’s invasion.

The summit in Indonesia yielded two important outcomes, according to the US: A joint position that Russia must not use a nuclear weapon in Ukraine and an expected resumption of talks on climate between American and Chinese negotiators, a boost for the COP 27 global climate conference in Egypt.

The Pacific region is at risk from North Korea’s destabilizing missile and nuclear activity and Biden toldXi that Beijing has an obligation to temper the activity.

The entire world suffers when the two most powerful leaders in the world, Washington and Beijing, are not talking about these issues.

Judging by the statements from the White House and the Chinese government, that’s precisely what happened. The two sides discussed sources of disagreement, including Taiwan’s autonomy, the war in Ukraine and China’s human rights record. Climate change, global health, and economic stability were areas of potential cooperation that they broached.

Leon Panetta, a former White House Chief of Staff, defense secretary and CIA chief who dealt with US- China relations for decades, expressed cautious optimism after the talks at the G20 summit.

Panetta said that the meeting could very well be crucial, because it would give the two nations the chance to start a dialogue on some issues that need to be dealt with.

The goal of both the US and China is incompatible, even though they both want to be the leading power in Asia and the world.

“Neither side should try to remold the other in one’s own image or seek to change or even subvert the other’s system,” the Chinese Foreign Ministry said.

The public comments by President Xi that he should think about and know where to lead his country have also been noted. He should also think about and know how to get along with other countries and the wider world,” could be seen as an acknowledgment of new responsibility with China now a major world power. But they could also be read as the kind of lecture that Washington once delivered to Chinese leaders that Xi is now taking the opportunity to throw back at the US.

The Foreign Policy of Washington has come full circle, since part of Nixon’s motivation to engage China during the 70s Cold War was to open strategic gaps between Beijing and Moscow.

China and Russia are still close since their leaders declared a “no-limits” friendship a year ago, despite the fact that relations between the US and China continue to plummet.

The Perfect Moment for the United States and the World to Win: Joe Biden and the Chinese President Xi Jinping at the Bali G20 Summit

Frida Ghitis, who was a producer and correspondent for CNN, is a world affairs columnist. She is a columnist for The Washington Post, a weekly opinion contributor to CNN and a columnist for World Politics Review. The views expressed in this commentary are her own. View more opinion on CNN.

It took two years after Joe Biden was elected US President before the leaders of the world’s two most powerful countries could finally speak in person, but when Biden and Chinese leader Xi Jinping finally met in Bali, Indonesia, on Monday on the sidelines of the G20 summit, the timing could not have been any better for the United States, for democracy and for the world.

The idea of a global contest between democracies and autocracies seemed theoretical and intangible when Biden voiced it while running for president. Now it is all too real.

That’s not the only reason, however, why this was the perfect moment — from the standpoint of the United States and for democracy — for this meeting to occur: There’s much more to this geopolitical moment than who controls the US House of Representatives and Senate.

The president of the Ukranian state returned to the destroyed city of Kherson as Biden and Xi were meeting.

Putin and Xi, the world’s leading autocrats, looked ascendant, unstoppable even. Western democracies were roiled by protests against Covid-19 restrictions. Putin was thinking about a victory in Ukraine. Xi was hosting the Olympics, basking in attention, and preparing to solidify his control of China.

Biden often seemed to be talking directly to the Russian leader, trying to expose him to Russians, Europeans and Americans as a tyrant responsible for disastrous blunders and inhumanity in Ukraine a year after his invasion. He mentioned the consequences that drew Kyiv closer to the West and strengthened NATO, which was different from Putin’s war aims. He mocked the former KGB colonel over how his aggression has led to one Scandinavian state whose national sovereignty was once dominated by the Soviet Union but now wants to join the western alliance: “He thought he’d get the Finlandization of NATO, instead he got the NATOization of Finland … and Sweden.”

Putin chose not to attend the G20 summit, which made him a pariah on the global stage.

Donald J. Biden: China’s No-go Theorem, the Crisis, and Troubles with the Dialogue of the Cold War

Biden is not the only leader with a strong hand. Xi has just been re-elected as China’s leader and he can rule as he pleases for as long as he wants. He doesn’t have to worry about the polls, the press, or the opposition party. He is essentially the absolute ruler of a mighty country for many years to come.

And yet Xi faces a mountain of daunting problems. The economy has slowed down so much that China is reluctant to reveal economic data. A vaccine that was once a tool of global diplomacy is disappointing. And partly because of that, China is imposing draconian lockdowns as the rest of the world gradually returns to normalcy after the pandemic.

To show that democracy works and that unprovoked wars of aggression, aimed at suppressing democracy and conquering territory, will not succeed, is a must in the competition between the two systems.

The author of the book “A Red Line in the Sand” is a CNN contributor and a member of the French Legion of Honor. He formerly was a correspondent for The New York Times and CBS News in Europe and Asia. The views expressed in this commentary are his own. View more opinion at CNN.

The Russian Army is on the War: Is Russia Ready to Rearm? Mike Kofman, the director of Russian Studies at the Think Tank KNOWER, and Analysing the Crime against Ukraine

Nine months in, Russian hopes of a swift seizure have been well and truly dashed, its army largely on the defensive across more than 600 miles of battle lines strung along the eastern and southern reaches of Ukraine.

There isn’t much value to any truce, whether it is linked to negotiations or not. A truce gives Russia, its back increasingly to the wall militarily, vitally needed breathing room.

Michael Kofman is the director of Russian studies at the think tank and is a leading expert on the Russian military.

Experts say that Russia is starting to rearm. “Ammunition availability” was one of the “most determinative aspects of this war,” said Kofman. It is not possible to make them in a month if you burn through 9 million rounds. The issue is the rate of production of weapons, and what can happen with it.

Kofman cited available information showing that the manufacture of munitions – which have been the staples of the exchanges so far along Ukrainian front lines – has gone from two, and in some factories to three, shifts a day in Russia. This suggests that “they have the component parts or otherwise they wouldn’t be going to double and triple shifts,” he said.

The Institute for the Study of War writes that “Putin’s continual accusations that Ukraine is a Western pawn with no real agency” reflect his focus on talks with the Westrather than with the country.

“As well as giving the Russians time to regroup and rearm, importantly it would relieve the pressure on their forces at the moment,” General Mick Ryan, a fellow of the Center for Strategic and International Studies told me in an email exchange. For nine months, they have been at it. Their forces are exhausted.”

That sentiment was voiced last month by Jeremy Fleming, head of Britain’s top-secret electronic espionage agency GCHQ. The commanders on the ground in Russia know that their supplies are running out.

The images showed that “in total, at least 52 Russian ammunition depots have been hit by the Ukrainian military since the end of March 2022.” It’s a good chunk of the 100 to 200 Russian depots that analysts believe are on the Ukrainian front, according to the report.

The problem is that the Russians have largely figured this threat out. “The Russians have seemingly adapted to the presence of HIMARs [American-supplied artillery] on the battlefield by pulling their big ammo depots back outside of the range,” Chris Dougherty, a senior fellow for the Defense Program and co-head of the Gaming Lab at the Center for New American Security in Washington, told me in an interview.

That’s “basically any big command post or ammo dump they pulled back beyond the 80-kilometer range,” he explained. And in many cases, just inside Russian territory – which Ukraine has given Washington assurances it would not target with rocket systems supplied by the US.

He said that the Russians were willing to trade soldiers and shells. The Russians expect NATO and the Western allies to stop making those trades in the future. It will push them to negotiate. I think that is Putin’s bet.

Days after saying he wanted an end to his war, the Russian President on Sunday repeated his claim that he was ready to “negotiate with everyone involved in this process about acceptable solutions,” the state news agency TASS reported.

That may be the case. But Putin made clear in his speech that there was no prospect of the war ending soon. In telling Russians the conflict was critical to their own nation’s existence and part of an effort by the West to attack Russia, he set the stage for months more bloodshed and narrowed even further already distant avenues for some kind of face-saving exit if Russia does not prevail.

But at some point, they’ll also get tired of this war, he added. And the Russian mindset may become “we may not have everything we wanted. We will annex the part of the country known as the “Donbass” and we will hold onto the peninsula. And I think that’s kind of their bet right now.”

It is not certain if the US and its allies would be prepared to return to a conflict that many wish had already been over.

The Zelensky of the Wartime: What he learned from his encounters with Putin and the organisers of World Affairs in Odesa

Editor’s Note: Michael Bociurkiw (@WorldAffairsPro) is a global affairs analyst currently based in Odesa. He is a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council and a former spokesperson for the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe. He is a regular contributor to CNN Opinion. The opinions expressed in this commentary are his own. CNN has more opinion.

Zelensky is considered a popular figure in both inside and outside Ukrainian society, thanks to the carefully managed stagecraft of the president’s inner circle.

In Paris at the time, I witnessed how Zelensky pulled up to the Élysée Palace in a modest Renault, while Putin motored in with an ostentatious armored limousine. (The host, French President Emmanuel Macron, hugged Putin but chose only to shake hands with Zelensky).

Zelensky is instantly known as the wartime president in trademark olive green, due to the way he stirs the imagination of people around the world by naming and shaming allies that don’t give his military enough funding.

Failure to demonstrate further progress on the battlefield with billions of dollars worth of military kit could stir unease among Western backers. The political death sentence would be capitulation to Russia.

Zelensky’s upbringing in the rough and tumble neighborhoods of Kryvyi Rih in central Ukraine shaped him into a scrappy kid who learned how to respond to bullies.

The founder of the think, Yevhen Hlibovytsky says he knew exactly what he had to do after being “bullied” by Putin.

This, after all, is the leader who when offered evacuation by the US as Russia launched its full-scale invasion, quipped: “I need ammunition, not a ride.”

Zelensky and the Ups and Downs of the World: Celebrating a pivotal moment in geopolitics with a modern comforter in chief

Zelensky thanked his supporters for a convincing victory during the campaign celebration in a nightclub that was destroyed in the war, but it seems a long, long way since. Standing on stage among the fluttering confetti, he looked in a state of disbelief at having defeated incumbent veteran politician Petro Poroshenko.

The war appears to have turned his ratings around. Just days after the invasion, Zelensky’s ratings approval surged to 90%, and remain high to this day. Even Americans early in the war rated Zelensky highly for his handling of international affairs – ahead of US President Joe Biden.

His bubble includes many people from his previous professional life as a TV comedian in the theatrical group Kvartal 95. The press conference held on the platform of a Kyiv metro station in April had perfect lighting and sharp camera angles that emphasized a wartime setting even in the midst of the war.

As for his skills as comforter in chief, I remember well the solace his nightly televised addresses brought in the midst of air raid sirens and explosions in Lviv.

Zelensky is showing his confidence and competence in a modern way by wearing hoodies and t-shirts, a uniform that’s more youth oriented than the suits that are used in Silicon Valley.

Zelenska has shown herself to be an effective communicator because she was on a journey with her husband that she couldn’t. Most recently, she met with King Charles during a visit to a refugee assistance center at the Ukrainian Catholic Cathedral of the Holy Family in London. (Curiously, TIME magazine did not include Zelenska on the cover montage and gave only a passing reference in the supporting text).

Despite the strong tailwinds at Zelensky’s back, there are subtle signs that his international influence could be dwindling. For example, last week, in what analysts called a pivotal moment in geopolitics, the G7 imposed a $60 a barrel price cap on Russian crude – despite pleas from Zelensky that it should have been set at $30 in order to inflict more pain on the Kremlin.

There were at least 76 strikes on the power infrastructure in Ukraine on Friday, and this is just the impact from war and missile and drone attacks. As winter bites, millions of Ukrainians are enduring long periods without heat, electricity and water. (However, indicative of the resiliency that Ukrainians have displayed since the start of the war, many say they are prepared to endure such hardship for another two to five years if it means defeating Russia).

All this adds up to a complex path ahead for the Zelensky administration, especially if liberating Crimea from Russia is part of the definition of victory envisioned by most Ukrainians. For the time being, and true to form, the tough guy from Kryvyi Rih shows no sign of backing down.

“Paradoxically, Zelensky achieved the thing that Putin most wanted to achieve but failed … to rally support domestically with a patriotic war in order to deflect and distract from his abject failures at home. In Putin’s mind, to be shown up by a mere ‘decadent’ comedian must be excruciatingly painful for him,” New York-based geopolitical and business analyst Michael Popow told me.

If President Zelensky is ready to talk to the Russians, then he will be able to succeed, because he will have won on the battlefield.

The speech “connected the struggle of Ukrainian people to our own revolution, to our own feelings that we want to be warm in our homes to celebrate Christmas and to get us to think about all the families in Ukraine that will be huddled in the cold and to know that they are on the front lines of freedom right now,” Clinton said on CNN’s “Anderson Cooper 360” Wednesday.

She said that Zelensky’s historic address made both Democrats and Republicans understand what is at stake in the fight against Putin and Russian aggression as well as Iran.

Clinton thinks no one is asking for a blank check. I believe that the Ukrainians are a great investment for the United States. They aren’t asking us to join their war. They’re fighting it themselves. They’re asking us and our allies for the means to not only defend themselves but to actually win.”

She hopes that they will send more. She noted that the US and NATO have resisted providing advanced equipment in the past, but said that they have seen how effective the Ukrainian military is.

Clinton, who previously met Russian President Vladimir Putin as US secretary of state, said the leader was “probably impossible to actually predict,” as the war turns in Ukraine’s favor and his popularity fades at home.

After Zelenskyy secured billions of dollars in US aid and received applause in Congress, the Kremlin criticized him.

During the town hall, Sullivan touted the latest US security assistance that the Biden administration has authorized to Ukraine – a $2 billion package of weapons that’s expected to be officially announced on Friday as the war hits the 1-year mark.

He said there had been no calls for peace or signs of willingness to “listen to Russia’s concerns” during Zelenskyy’s visit, which he said proves that the U.S. is fighting a proxy war with Russia “to the last Ukrainian,” Reuters reports.

The Kremlin has also been selling that line to the Russian public, who is largely buying it, says Sergey Radchenko, a Russian history professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies.

The majority of Russian people don’t want to get involved in the conflict, but they still think of it as a battle between Russia and the West.

Moscow had warned last week that it would see the reported delivery of Patriot missiles to Ukraine as “another provocative move by the U.S.” Does Sloat worry this could provoke a Russian escalation?

“Patriots are a defensive weapons system that will help Ukraine defend itself as Russia sends missile after missile and drone after drone to try and destroy Ukrainian infrastructure and kill Ukrainian civilians,” she said. “If Russia doesn’t want their missiles shot down, Russia should stop sending them into Ukraine.”

Putin’s pledge to win the peace deal for Ukraine: After Zelenskyy’s visit to the United States, Kuleba told the Associated Press

Beijing is ready to present its peace proposition for Ukraine, its top diplomat announced Saturday at the Munich Security Conference, in a rare remark that referred to the Ukraine conflict as a war.

If Russia faced a war crimes tribunal first, then it could be invited to a summit, the foreign minister told The Associated Press.

Kuleba said he was happy with the results of Zelenskyy’s visit to the U.S., as well as that the U.S. had made a special plan to get the battery ready to be operational. It takes up to a year to train.

Kuleba said that diplomacy plays an important role in winning the war, and added that Ukraine will do its best to win it.

“The United Nations could be the best venue for holding this summit, because this is not about making a favor to a certain country,” he said. This is really about getting everyone on board.

Zelenskyy presented a 10-point peace formula at the group of 20 summit in November of 2015, which included the restoration of Ukraine’s territorial integrity, the withdrawal of Russian troops, the release of all prisoners, and a tribunal for those responsible for the aggression.

About Guterres’ role, Kuleba said: “He has proven himself to be an efficient mediator and an efficient negotiator, and most importantly, as a man of principle and integrity. We would be interested in his participation.

U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine During the Ground and Air War in Ukraine: “Is Russia Ready for Negotiations?” Kuleba said

“They say that they are ready for negotiations, but nothing they do on the battlefield proves that to be the case,” he said.

Zelensky went to the US for the first time in ten months to show his intent to keep his allies focused on the conflict.

“This shows how both the United States are important for Ukraine, but also how Ukraine is important for the United States,” said Kuleba, who was part of the delegation to the U.S.

He said that the U.S. government developed a program for the missile battery to complete the training faster than usual “without any damage to the quality of the use of this weapon on the battlefield.”

Kuleba didn’t specify a time frame but he did say that it would be less than six months. He said that the training will be done outside of Canada and the US.

During Russia’s ground and air war in Ukraine, Kuleba has been second only to Zelenskyy in carrying Ukraine’s message and needs to an international audience, whether through Twitter posts or meetings with friendly foreign officials.

On Monday, Ukraine called on U.N. member states to deprive Russia of its status as a permanent member of the U.N. Security Council and to exclude it from the world body. Kuleba said that they have been prepared for this step to uncover the fraud and deprive Russia of its status.

After the fall of the USSR, Russian never applied for membership in the U.N. Security Council, according to the Foreign Ministry.

Cold War Between Ukraine and the West: Moscow’s Implications for the Security Council and the International Solidarity Working (ISAW)

The International Solidarity Working said that Putin’s December 25 statement was part of a deliberate information campaign aimed at misleading the West to push Ukraine into making preliminary concessions.

Even when seemingly indicating a willingness to negotiate, the Russian leader refused on Sunday to mention Ukraine itself as a relevant party and continued to couch his offer in the false pretext that it is Moscow that is defending itself with what he euphemistically calls a “special military operation.”

The vaguely conciliatory tone of Putin’s speech was replaced by a strong message from one of his key officials.

Alexander Rodnyansky, an economic adviser to President Zelensky, told CNN Tuesday that Putin’s comments were likely an effort to buy time in the conflict.

“The blitzkrieg has gone terribly wrong for them and they know that, so they need more time to regroup and rebuild their troops,” Rodnyansky said, adding that it was also Kremlin’s strategy to dissuade the world from sending more military aid to Ukraine. We must not fall in that trap.

If Zelensky was to play a part in considering a deal with Russia, Putin’s position would be strengthened.

So it makes little sense for the West to entertain the idea of a land grab by Putin, or a deal that would reward his invasion of the country.

But Zelensky and his officials have said throughout that they will continue to sound out the possibility of negotiations, without raising any hopes that they would achieve a truce.

Kuleba told the AP that every war ends in a diplomatic way. Every war ends as a result of actions taken in the battlefield and at the negotiating table.

The steps includes a path to nuclear safety, food security, a special tribunal for alleged Russian war crimes, and a final peace treaty with Moscow. He told the G20 leaders that they should use all of their power to make Russia abandon its nuclear threats and implement a price cap on energy imports from Moscow.

Russian President Vladimir Putin Meets Wang Yi: What will Russia do next in a War between the U.S. and the Soviet Union?

Even if a decisive swing on the battlefield in the New Years causes a change in the equation, both sides are stuck in the middle of a war that could last a long time.

“For me, as president, a just peace is no compromises as to the sovereignty, freedom and territorial integrity of our country, the payback for all the damages inflicted by Russian aggression,” Zelensky said during his joint press conference with Biden at the White House.

America has done this before. During the Cuban Missile Crisis, the most dangerous nuclear confrontation so far, the Soviet Union’s position shifted in a matter of days, ultimately accepting an outcome that favored the West. America may have accepted an inferior compromise that weakened its security and credibility if red lines had been in place.

What is to be done has been the topic of debate for a long time. I am convinced that the United States should double down on diplomacy so that those nations that have not joined in the defense of Ukraine are persuaded to do so.

In this photograph, provided by Russian state media, President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia is meeting with Wang Yi, China’s top foreign policy official, at the Kremlin in Moscow on Wednesday.

The leaders of the two nuclear powers vowed to have no limits in their relationship. It looked like a big event in the global realignment of power.

The US needs to do more than fortifying NATO and strengthen alliances in order to prevent the creation of a unified force of antidemocratic regimes.

The rule of the strongest doesn’t work when you can’t win, which is what happened to Russia and China.

Is Xi in or out with Putin? Xi seems to want it both ways. He wants the relationship with a country that has invaded its neighbor without provocation, but he’s trying to present himself as a responsible global leader; an alternative to the democratic Western model for other countries to follow.

According to US intelligence, Russia has bought artillery shells from North Korea, another notorious dictatorship, which denies its involvement in a war whose morality is beyond the pale.

As Russia kills Ukrainian civilians and destroys their infrastructure, Iranian drones are one of the weapons they use. Tehran first denied it was arming Russia, saying it “has not and will not” provide weapons to Russia.

Beijing’s relationship with Tehran is complicated. In December, when Xi visited Iran-foe Saudi Arabia, a joint statement after meeting with Saudi officials noted Iran’s “destabilizing regional activities” and “support for terrorist and sectarian groups,” infuriating Iran.

The first Iranian president in 20 years went to China this week. The trip, at Xi’s invitation, ostensibly aims to implement an agreement for a 25-year strategic cooperation pact the two reached at a meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization in 2021.

Both the Democrats and Republicans in Congress worry that China’s support of Tehran could allow it to go ahead with its weapons programs, support terrorism and human rights abuses.

Territorial and sovereignty integrity of all countries will be respected in China’s proposal, Wang said, adding that Beijing will continue to work for peace.

European Union leaders are wary of Beijing’s intentions as Wang called for Europeans to change their approach to the war.

“We’ve seen that China and Russia signed an unlimited partnership, and I think we need more proof and more action to see that China is not supporting Russia,” she told CNN. “So far, we see the opposite. And therefore, there is an open question on the table.”

The “no limits” partnership agreement that China and Moscow signed just days before the start of the invasion was a sign that China was closer to Russia.

Wang Yi, the newly promoted Chinese leader’s top foreign policy adviser, will arrive in Moscow this week as part of his eight-day Europe tour, which brings into spotlight China’s attempts to balance diplomacy after Russia’s incursion into Ukraine a year ago.

In an interview with CBS News, which was released on Saturday, Blinken said that the US had made clear to Beijing the consequences of providing weapons or ammunition to the Kremlin.

The officials would not describe in detail what intelligence the US has seen suggesting a recent shift in China’s posture, but said US officials have been concerned enough that they have shared the intelligence with allies and partners at the Munich Security Conference over the last several days.

The issue was raised by the Secretary of State when he met with his Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi, on the sidelines of the conference.

A senior State Department official tells reporters that the Secretary was very clear in warning about the consequences of China assisting or giving material support to Russia.

The American-Russia War on Ukraine: Why the United States is Frustrated and How the Ukraine Has Done About It, and Why We Are Trying to End It

This warfare cannot continue. We need to think about what efforts we can make to bring this warfare to an end,” Wang said at the conference.

Multiple sources are familiar with the US and European intelligence and say that equipment includes items like helmets and flak jackets. But China has stopped short of the more robust military assistance, like lethal weapons systems for use on the battlefield in Ukraine, that Russia has requested because it has not wanted to be seen as a pariah on the world stage, officials said.

There is information that they are considering providing lethal support that could cause a serious problem for us and in our relationship, and so we have made it very clear to them that that would cause a serious problem.

China and Russia publicly declared a “no-limits” friendship just before Russia invaded Ukraine last year, and Wang is set to visit Russia this month, CNN has reported.

Many Republicans, including some of them in the next decade, believe that aid to Ukraine should be scaled back as the war goes on. With Republicans in control of the House, it’s expected to be harder to pass funding for Ukraine this year.

Turner, an Ohio Republican, defended congressional support for Ukraine despite several of his fellow House GOP colleagues co-signing a “Ukraine Fatigue” resolution calling for the US to end military and financial aid to the country. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy told CNN that he did not think the resolution was a good idea.

But as the one-year anniversary of the war approaches, McCaul warned that hedging support for Ukraine could prolong the conflict, which could play into Russia’s advantages and allow anti-Ukraine dissent to build.

The longer they drag this out, the more they play into the Russian leader. Putin has his hands. He wants this to be a long, protracted war because he knows that potentially, he will lose – we could lose the will of the American people and therefore the Congress,” the Texas Republican told CNN, speaking from the Munich Security Conference in Germany.

McCaul was asked by Brown if he believed the US would send fighter jets to Ukraine, and he said he hoped so and continued his concern over the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.

Turner said the resolution was related to a letter House Democrats wrote to the White House last fall urging them to pursue diplomacy between Russia and the Ukranian government. The letter was retracted shortly after.

Some people on the one side have said that they don’t want support to continue, while others have said that they want support to end. “There are 435 members of Congress. There are probably 400 or so that are going in this direction.

Why the USA is so proud of China, and why the West should not give up on its national security (after the Davos of Defense)

McCaul said that parts manufactured in the United States were contained in the balloon shot down off the coast of South Carolina, and appealed to the US to stop the flow of weapons technology to China.

“They steal a lot of this from us. We don’t have to sell them anything they can use in their advanced weapons systems to cause more harm to Taiwan or the US. I think there is bipartisanship on this issue.

McCaul said that the tension between the two countries is high right now, and that both Democrats and Republicans want to confront Chinese threats.

“I think we have a unique opportunity to be bipartisan on this issue of national security against one of the greatest threats to this country, and the world, for that matter,” McCaul said.

“No one, of course, wants a cold war, but that isn’t the issue. We don’t want a China that is going to be threatening or building up its military and we don’t want a China that apologizes for sending a spy balloon over us.

Dubbed the Davos of Defense, the Munich Security Conference attracts heads of state, generals, intelligence chiefs and top diplomats from around the world.

President Zelenskyy of Ukrainian called on Western leaders to act rather than talk at the beginning of the conference and warned of dwindling supplies on the battlefield.

Confidentiality, Cooperation, and Nuclear Security in the Mid-Atlantic region: U.S. versus China at the Fourth International Security Conference

The U.S. had a record number of delegates at the gathering this year, and they had representation from Congress as well.

There were delegations from across the world at the conference, and broader issues like NATO and Russia were being decided on the sidelines.

As the war enters its second year, it remains to be seen whether dialogue with President Vladimir Putin will be possible at next year’s conference. The US is about to put Russian officials on trial for crimes against humanity, according to Vice President Harris.

Harris described how Russian soldiers are deliberately targeting civilians, citing evidence of “widespread and systemic” rape, torture, execution-style killings, beatings, electrocution and deportation, including children who, she said, have been cruelly separated from their parents.

She urged delegates not to look the other way, saying: “Think of the four-year-old girl who the United Nations recently reported was sexually assaulted by a Russian soldier.”

The U.S. Secretary of State said in a statement released at the conference: “We reserve crimes against humanity determinations for the most egregious crimes.”

“On the Ukraine issue, China has always stood on the side of peace and dialogue, and has always insisted on pressing for peace and negotiation,” Mr. Wang said in a meeting with Ukraine’s foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba, on Saturday, when they were both in Munich for an annual security conference, according to China’s official summary of the meeting.

The first high level meeting between the U.S. and China since the US shot a Chinese balloon down took place on the last night of the conference.

In a statement, the U.S. State Department said that Blinken told Wang that the U.S. is not seeking conflict with China but warned him against Beijing providing any material support to Russia, or helping Moscow evade Western sanctions.

While Wang Yi called for peace in Ukraine – without elaborating how to achieve it or what peace in the region means – Europe’s leaders committed to investing more in weapons.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said member states must work together with the defense industry to scale up the production of munitions for Ukraine which, according to NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, is using them quicker than Europe can replace them.

German Chancellor Scholz firmly asked his European partners to follow their pledges to deliver battle tanks to Ukraine without delay. During a Q&A session, Scholz quipped it was ironic that he’s now having to urge others to deliver Leopard tanks quickly to Ukraine after they’d put pressure on him to do the same in previous weeks.

Boris Pistorius continued to push for increased military spending in Europe and NATO. He called on NATO to agree on 2% as a minimum commitment in order to reach their target of spending 2% of GDP on defense. Germany currently does not meet the 2% target and is not expected to do so for another couple of years, despite Scholz’s additional €100 billion boost to the Bundeswehr budget.

It was not unusual for Scholz to say no on several occasions to Ukrainian requests to send fighter jets. He said Germany’s support is solid but cautions against hasty decisions that could lead to a war.

When Vladimir Putin left Moscow to launch a war on the continent of Europe: Conversation with Christoph Heusgen at the Munich Security Conference in December 2019

Prominent Kremlin critics — including exiled oil tycoon Mikhail Khodorkovsky, chess champion Gary Kasparov, and Yulia Navalnaya, the wife of jailed opposition political Alexey Navalny — were pointedly offered seats instead.

The Munich Security Conference is known for promoting dialogue, even between adversaries, but MSC Chair Christoph Heusgen says he did not want the conference to serve as a podium for Russian propaganda.

Heusgen admitted in an interview this week that he left last year’s conference convinced that Russia wouldn’t invade Ukranian. Four days later, the invasion began.

Editor’s Note: John J. Sullivan was US Ambassador to Russia from December 2019 to October 2022. He was previously US Deputy Secretary of State. He is a partner at the firm and a distinguished fellow at the Georgetown University School of Foreign Service. The views expressed in this commentary are of his own. Read more opinion on CNN.

For weeks, I had been telling everyone I could reach that Russian President Vladimir Putin was going to launch a war on the continent of Europe, the scale of which had not been seen since World War II.

Although confident in my pre-war assessment, I was disconsolate. I had worked hard to make modest progress in the few areas in which a dialogue with the Russians was possible when I was the US ambassador.

I say this with a heavy heart, as a person who was an advocate for continued negotiations with the Russian government even as the downward spiral of our relationship accelerated. I was the deputy secretary state and the ambassador in Moscow and I took the lead in negotiations, despite having left a comfortable perch on Mahogany Row.

Russian interlocutors read from their talking points and would not engage in a real dialogue. Minders from the Russian security services monitored every meeting and phone call. The Russians were playing a game in order to lay groundwork for an invasion that Putin had already made a decision to launch. The only question was when.

From where I lived in Moscow, to Russia’s standing in the world, the war changed everything. I had to move onto the Embassy compound because the pace of teleconferences with Washington, combined with an eight-hour time difference, meant I had to be immediately available at all hours.

More significantly, the invasion roiled the global economy, including energy and grain markets. And most tragically, it slaughtered thousands of innocents and caused unspeakable suffering for millions of Ukrainians because of a policy choice by Putin in his quest for empire.

The Russians did not negotiate in good faith before the war, and they will not do so now. There is no off ramp until Putin gets what he wants.

Only then will the Russian government realize that the goals of its Special Military Operation cannot and will not be achieved. Only then will the Russian government negotiate in good faith. And only then will peace return to Europe.

U.S. President Joe Biden’s Visit to Ukraine During the One-Year Anniversary of the Ukraine War: Confidence from the EU and the Test of International Turbulence

As US President Joe Biden touched down in Ukraine to meet with his counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky on Monday, China’s top diplomat was traveling in the opposite direction, on his way to Russia.

The two trips that were taken just days before the one-year anniversary of the war underscore the sharpening of fault lines between the world’s two powers.

“We do not add fuel to the fire, and we’re against reaping benefits from this crisis,” Wang said in a thinly veiled dig at the US, echoing the propaganda messaging that regularly made China’s nightly prime-time news program – that the US is intentionally prolonging the war because its arms manufacturers are earning fat profits from weapon sales.

He urged European officials to think about “what framework should there be to bring lasting peace to Europe, what role should Europe play to manifest its strategic autonomy.”

China’s Foreign Ministry criticized the US for “shoving responsibility”, shifting blame and spreading false information.

It is not likely that China would attempt to supply arms for the Ukraine war in order to shift the strategic balance of the battlefield.

“Who is calling for dialogue and peace? Who is promoting confrontation by handing out knives? The international community can see clearly,” the spokesperson said.

Previously, Beijing had avoided actions that could result in secondary sanctions, which would deal a devastating blow to an economy that has been hobbled by three years of zero- Covid policy.

Though Beijing claimed impartiality in the conflict and no advance knowledge of Russia’s intent, it has refused to condemn Moscow and parroted Kremlin lines blaming NATO for provoking the conflict.

Over the past year, Beijing has supported Moscow by increasing its trade, diplomatic engagements and schedule of joint military exercises.

Biden’s dramatic visit to Kyiv Monday amid wailing air raid sirens and his soaring speech in Warsaw a day later reinforced the West’s remarkable support for Ukraine’s resistance to Russia and directly repudiated President Vladimir Putin.

Mr. Wang didn’t use the word war or invasion to describe the fighting in Ukraine. And while in Moscow, Mr. Wang may be even more reluctant to expose any deep differences between China and Russia.

The Chinese news media shared the footage from the meeting between Mr. Wang and Mr. Putin. “But Chinese-Russian relations have withstood the test of international turbulence, and are mature and durable — as steadfast as Mount Tai,” he said, referring to a famed Chinese mountain.

The U.S. Foreign Policy Puzzle After the 2024 Ukrainian War: Analysis of the US/Russia War War and Reply to the Biden Administration

The foreign policy picture is not only a problem for American diplomats. Concerns about military capacity and whether current defense spending is sufficient are raised because of the decline of US and Western weapons stocks as well as rising challenges abroad. Key Republicans meanwhile are accusing Biden of snubbing voters facing economic and other problems, even as he tries to position Democrats as the protectors of working Americans as the 2024 campaign dawns.

And Biden promised that President Putin’s lust for land and power would fail, and the Ukrainian people would love their country.

To Western ears, Putin seems to be living in an alternative reality. And Biden contradicted his claims of Western imperialism, saying, “I speak once more to the people of Russia. The nations of Europe don’t want to control or destroy Russia. The West was not plotting to attack Russia, as Putin said today.”

“The fear of Russia going into NATO countries and all that, and steamrolling, that has not even come close to happening,” DeSantis said on Fox. They have shown themselves to be a third rate military power.

The estrangement between the US and Russia is nearly complete, demonstrated by Biden’s trip.

Putin stated Tuesday that Russia would be suspending participation in the nuclear treaty with the United States. It was not clear what impact this would have since Moscow has stopped implementing.

Russia lacks the resources to start a new nuclear arms race with the United States due to its struggling economy and conventional forces being under extreme pressure. But the collapse of one of the last building blocks of a post-Cold War thaw between Russia and the US exemplifies the almost total lack of communication between the rivals.

There will be no return to normal relations between the US and Moscow even after the Ukraine war is over, because of the Biden administration accusation.

US Ambassador to the United Nations Linda Thomas-Greenfield warned on CNN’s “State of the Union” Sunday that such a step would cross a US red line but did not specify what consequences could result.

A long-dragging conflict could also drive divides between the US and Europe – further playing into China’s foreign policy goals. Biden’s ability to fulfill his foreign policy goals on the global stage could be weakened if political dissent continues in Washington.

Mr. Wang arrived in Moscow this week after a tour of Western Europe, where he sought to persuade European leaders that Beijing is not supporting Mr. Putin’s war and wants to encourage a peaceful exit from the fighting.

Mr. Wang and Mr. Patrushev discussed Mr. Putin’s security adviser. The Chinese government statement on the meeting said the two had “exchanged views” on Ukraine.

Mr. Putin projected that the China-Russia trade could reach $200 billion this year, compared with $185 billion last year.

Putin said everything is moving forward and we are reaching new frontiers. “And above all, we are talking, of course, about economic issues.”

Chinese resummation of peace talks in the wake of the Russian-Russian war: US state department official comments on the ‘cold war mentality’

A top US State Department official said Thursday that the Biden administration will be putting constraints on Chinese companies who may be involved in skirting sanctions related to the war in Ukraine.

If you violate the sanctions and provide military support, they will give the lie to Chinese claims of being neutral in the war, Nuland said.

The forthcoming sanctions will also “clamp down on more Russian banks that have been evading sanctions” as well as “the middlemen who are flipping back money to the Russian government” through oil trade.

A US State Department official said the Biden administration was expecting China to put forward a plan for peace with Russia on Friday.

“We await to see what the Chinese put on the table, this is supposedly to be announced tomorrow,” Victoria Nuland, the State Department under secretary of political affairs, said during a conversation with the Washington Post.

“It can’t simply be a cynical ceasefire that allows the Russians the time to go home, rest, refit and return,” Nuland said. “But listen if Xi Jinping can get Putin and his army out of Ukraine, I think we’d all applaud and give a peace price.”

In a newly released position paper Friday, China’s Foreign Ministry called for a resumption of peace talks, an end to unilateral sanctions, and stressed its opposition to the use of nuclear weapons – a stance Chinese leader Xi Jinping communicated to Western leaders last year.

The 12-point document is part of Beijing’s latest efforts to present itself as a neutral peace broker, as it struggles to balance its “no-limits” relationship with Moscow and fraying ties with the West as the war drags on.

No one benefits from conflict and war. The paper said that the parties must stay rational and restrained, avoid fanning the flames, and prevent the crisis from getting out of control.

Russia has been found to have violated Ukrainian sovereignty, despite claims of the “sovereignty,” independence and territorial integrity of all countries.

The Chinese position paper criticized the West’s approach to the war. It says unilateral sanctions only create more problems, and it called for the abandonment of a so-called “cold war mentality”.

Enhancing or expanding military blocs is not the way to ensure the security of a region. The legitimate security interests and concerns of all countries must be taken seriously and addressed properly,” it said, apparently echoing Moscow’s view the West provoked the war through the expansion of NATO.

In Beijing, the ambassador of the European Union to China, Jorge Toledo, told reporters at a briefing that China’s position paper was not a peace proposal, adding that the EU is “studying the paper closely,” according to Reuters.

She said that now that the paper is out, it’s clear that China isn’t talking to Ukraine.

Russian Warfare, Nuclear Forces, and the First Reaction of the United States to Ukraine: A Comment on the Putin-Zerlensky Summit

“This requires us to identify changes more voluntarily and respond to the changes more actively to further strengthen our comprehensive strategic partnership,” Wang said.

There was a topic raised at the town hall about Putin as the war dragged on. Sullivan was asked if there had been a change in Russia’s nuclear posture, and he said that the US had seen no change.

Lera, a 14-year-old Ukrainian girl, asked Power if she could rely on Americans to be safe in her country. Power responded that the US was committed to making Ukrainians feel as safe as possible despite the war.

Sullivan said that they did not see movements in Russia’s nuclear forces that would lead them to believe that something has changed.

New funding for contracts, including drones, mine-clearing equipment, and secure communications equipment, were included in the $2 billion package.

Sullivan was asked by a Ukrainian soldier, currently on the front lines, if the US could increase production of weapons such as 155-millimeter artillery shells and the heavy machine gun.

Sullivan said that the production of all of these types of bullets would increase under the direction of Biden. “This is not something we can do with the snap of a finger, but it’s something that we are putting immense effort and resources into.”

Sullivan said that the US has flexibility on weapons as the administration weighs risks of war with Ukrainian security needs. Biden agreed to provide Abrams tanks to Ukraine – which the US has argued aren’t as relevant as German Leopard tanks – because Germany wanted the US to provide tanks before it was willing to do so itself, he said.

Still, Sullivan noted that the F-16s came up during Biden’s trip earlier this week when he spoke to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who is pushing for F-16s.

Zakaria asked Sullivan for his first reaction Thursday evening to a 12-point plan Beijing released calling for the end of hostilities in Ukraine and pitching itself as a mediator between Moscow and Kyiv.

“Well my first reaction to it is they could stop at point one, which is respect the sovereignty of all nations,” Sullivan said. If Russia stops attacking Ukraine and pulls its forces, this war will end tomorrow. Ukraine wasn’t attacking Russia, NATO wasn’t attacking Russia, the United States wasn’t attacking Russia. The war of choice was waged by Putin.

Sullivan and Power argued that Biden’s Republican critics don’t care if the billions of dollars the US is spending in Ukraine is spent at home.

I would tell those senators to do these things at home. But are you saying that American is incapable of also helping to serve as a powerful force of good in the world?” Sullivan said something.

These senators are making an argument, that there is pessimism in it. President Biden has an optimistic view, which is that we can do it, and we should do it, and we are doing it.”

There is a flow of support that has lasted over the course of last year for Americans and Ukrainians, Power said. In a town where bipartisanship is rare, the issue of Ukraine is more important than any other.

Power said they have your backs and were trying to help you feel as safe as possible when someone tried to take that away.

Source: https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/24/politics/takeaways-cnn-ukraine-war-town-hall/index.html

The Impact of a “Peaceful War” on Ukraine’s Infrastructure: How Do We Want to Rebuild the Next Generation of Technicolor?

Power said that Ukraine would need a long time to rebuild after the war ends. There are some estimates that put the damage at $130 billion.

Power said that USAID and international financial institutions have worked to rebuild Ukraine’s infrastructure and help get private industry to return to peaceful parts of Ukraine.

She said the Biden administration and allies were focused on making sure that the money dedicated to reconstruction is well spent, even though major projects are still ahead.

“The other thing we want to do now is, with an eye to those big-ticket items, most of which will only happen when there’s a negotiated peace,” Power said.

She said they have to make sure the resources are well spent. If you have a huge investment which goes much beyond what is provided right now, you want to make sure that the safeguards are in place so that all outside investors and donors know and say that this is money that is going.

“There isn’t much leverage involved. It’s not a reason why you would want to cease and desist, but the document lays out broad principles. There’s no big appeal that you’re getting something. Ian’s said that there’s no big cost if you don’t comply.