Pentagon and Department of Justice Searches for Top-Secret Information Sources in the Russia-Russian Warped Data Collection Scenario
Human sources are also at risk. Maps of Russian troop movements and capabilities included in the trove of documents are sourced in part to human confidential sources, prompting fears among US officials that those assets could now be in danger.
Pentagon officials acknowledge the documents are real and say they are investigating. The Department of Justice said Friday evening it has also opened an investigation and is working with the Department of Defense.
A small number of documents, including some marked “top secret,” were found on social media on Wednesday. Since then, journalists, researchers, and social media sleuths have uncovered additional classified documents posted as early as March 1 on additional sites. This raises a host of questions about how widespread the breach may be and how much damage it could cause.
Also, the motive for putting the material online is unclear, since government intelligence agencies around the world seek to conceal, rather than reveal, secret documents they obtain.
Some of those posting on social media seem to be hiding, and they may be reposting versions that they came across in other places. The source for posting the documents online has not been publically identified.
Maps of Ukraine and Counterattack on the United States during the 2014 Russian-Publikush War I: Current State and Possible Future Prospects
Before the war, Russian intelligence agencies were considered extremely active in Ukraine. Russia and Ukraine were both part of the Soviet Union, and Russian President Vladimir Putin, a former intelligence agent himself, has meddled in Ukrainian affairs throughout his time in power, including an initial 2014 military incursion.
Many include maps of Ukraine and charts on where troops are concentrated and what kinds of weapons are available to them. There are online posts that show photos of folded and creased documents.
Some are dated to late February or early March and appear to be part of a slide deck produced daily for top U.S. military and other national security officials.
A figure of around 71,000 is considered plausible by one chart. However, the chart also lists the Russian fatalities at 16,000 to 17,500. The Russian count is believed to be much larger, though neither side releases overall casualty figures.
Prior to the war, some U.S. officials expressed concerns that Russian intelligence could gain access to the information the U.S. was providing to Ukraine. Intelligence sharing between NATO and the U.S. helped the smaller Ukrainian military fight off the Russians.
The Russians have been on the offensive in eastern Ukraine for months, but the Russian military has only made progress in fighting that has killed thousands of people on both sides.
Most analysts believe that the Ukrainians will launch their own offensive in the near future, and they are most likely to focus on areas controlled by Russian troops.
Pentagon Investigation of the Russian-Ukraine Battle: Battle for the Donbas Region Likely Heading for a Stalemate Throughout 2023
Some of the documents that the US officials say are authentic show the extent of US espionage on key allies.
It has been shown that the US penetrated the Russian Ministry of Defense and the Russian mercenary organization by intercepting communications and human sources.
The intelligence could explain public US comments about not wanting to give Ukraine long-range missile systems over fears that Kyiv will use them to strike inside Russia. Ukraine has pledged not to use US-supplied weapons.
The leak has also led the Pentagon to take steps to tighten the flow of such highly sensitive documents, officials said, which are normally available on any given day to hundreds of people across the government.
The Joint Staff, which consists of the most senior uniformed leadership that advises the president, is looking at who gets these reports, according to a Defense official. Some of the documents had markings that indicated they had been produced by the Joint Staffs intelligence arm, J2, and appeared to be briefing documents.
Pentagon deputy press secretary Sabrina Singh said Friday that the department is continuing to review the matter and had made a referral to the Justice Department, which separately confirmed to CNN that it has launched an investigation into the source of the leak.
While spying is an inevitable part of how the US intelligence community collects information globally, diplomats from some of the countries mentioned told CNN it was frustrating – and harmful to the US reputation – to see that information exposed publicly.
We cannot wait for a damage assessment from the US as we expect them to share it in the coming days. A country that is part of the Five Eyes intelligence sharing arrangement with the US and others is doing its own right now.
The official also pointed out that it was alarming to see one of the documents from February titled “Russia-Ukraine: Battle for the Donbas Region Likely Heading for a Stalemate Throughout 2023.” The document notes the challenges with assessing the “endurance of Ukraine’s operations.”
“Gains for Ukraine will be hard to accomplish, but it does not help to have the private US assessment pointing to a likely yearlong stalemate revealed publicly,” the official said.
One document reveals that the US has been spying on Zelensky. That is unsurprising, said the source close to Zelensky, but Ukrainian officials are deeply frustrated about the leak.
The US intelligence report, which is sourced to signals intelligence, says that Zelensky in late February “suggested striking Russian deployment locations in Russia’s Rostov Oblast” using unmanned aerial vehicles, since Ukraine does not have long-range weapons capable of reaching that far.
Source: https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/09/politics/pentagon-leaked-documents-us-spying-allies-foes/index.html
Podolyak: What do we really know about the Russian-American conflict with the US and how to bring it to the Israeli border?
Signals intelligence includes intercepted communications and is broadly defined by the National Security Agency as “intelligence derived from electronic signals and systems used by foreign targets, such as communications systems, radars, and weapons systems.”
According to another intelligence report, the Chinese could use Ukrainian strikes on targets deep inside Russia to align NATO with Russia, and possibly increase their aid to Russia.
Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to the head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, said on his Telegram channel Friday that he believes the documents that have been disseminated are inauthentic, do not relate to the real plans of the President ofUkraine, and are based on a
Yet another document describes, in remarkable detail, a conversation between two senior South Korean national security officials about concerns by the country’s National Security Council over a US request for ammunition.
The officials worried that supplying the ammunition, which the US would then send to Ukraine, would violate South Korea’s policy of not supplying lethal aid to countries at war. The document shows that one of the officials suggested a way of getting around the policy by selling the ammunition to Poland.
Several diplomats said officials from several countries plan to raise the matter with Washington, but they have not had any conversations yet as they wait to hear from the Biden administration.
Jerusalem was angry with an intelligence report about Israel. The report claims that Israel’s main intelligence agency, Mossad, encouraged protests against the new government in a number of calls to action.
The Mossad was called a monstrous and without any ground by the Israeli Prime Minister’s Office Sunday morning.
Source: https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/09/politics/pentagon-leaked-documents-us-spying-allies-foes/index.html
The U.S. can do something about its allies and how it can change it: Israel: Pathways to Providing Lethal Aid to Ukraine
Another document, also a classified one, gives a glimpse into what the US sees in its allies and how the US can change them.
The document, titled “Israel: Pathways to Providing Lethal Aid to Ukraine,” says Jerusalem “likely will consider providing lethal aid under increased US pressure or a perceived degradation” in its relationship with Russia.
Another document reveals what the US thin ks about some European countries’ intentions to donate fighter jets to Ukraine, which has been asking for the planes for over a year.
The documents also provide a window into casualty figures on both sides, numbers that are notoriously difficult to estimate accurately and that the US has been reluctant to share publicly in detail.
Analysts say bad actors are using the leaked documents to spread misinformation. The casualty numbers document was altered in recent weeks to reduce Russian deaths, and it was spread on the pro-Russian Telegram channels.
“This level of involvement is rising, is rising gradually,” he said. “We keep our eye on this process. The whole story is more complicated, but it cannot influence the final outcome of the special operation.