The Season for a Tropical Tropical Hurricane: It’s Predictable, but How Prepared Are You? Rick Spinrad, P.D., Alicia, Mo., Jan. 21, 2019

After a few years of heightened risk, the Atlantic hurricane season is shaping up to look pretty average for 2023. The weather pattern called La Nia is coming to an end and will be followed by another weather pattern called El Nio. The caveat is that there’s more uncertainty in this year’s seasonal forecast than normal because of unusually warm temperatures in the Atlantic.

But the ocean water in the area where hurricanes form is abnormally warm right now, and is expected to stay that way throughout hurricane season, which runs through November. The ocean is getting hotter because of climate change, although scientists are still trying to understand what is driving this year’s record-breaking heat.

Even with a “near-normal” season, coastal communities still need to be prepared, officials warned at a press conference today. “Remember, it only takes one storm to ruin a community, regardless of the statistics that I shared,” Rick Spinrad said. “If one of those named storms is hitting your home or your community, it’s very serious.”

That means making a plan for how to evacuate if a storm is headed your way, getting ready for power outages and thinking about how to care for elderly family members, people with disabilities, children and pets.

The Strange Mixture of Tropical Storms and Hurricanes in the Pacific, as Predicted by NOAA and the Guam Typhoon Mawar

Between 12 and 17 storms are expected to grow strong enough to earn a name (reaching wind speeds of at least 39 miles per hour), NOAA predicts. Of those named storms, five to nine are expected to intensify into hurricanes. The number of hurricanes this year is set to be up to four. For comparison, between 1991 and 2020, there was an average of 14.4 named storms, 7.2 hurricanes, and 3.2 major hurricanes per season.

The 2023 Atlantic hurricane season, which begins June 1, will be “near-normal” according to the annual forecast by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

In the past few years, the La Nia has set the stage for storms to develop in the Atlantic. The climate patterns of La Nia and El Nio affect the weather across the globe. In the Atlantic, La Niña tends to reduce vertical wind shear that otherwise might have prevented a tropical storm from intensifying.

The Colorado State University predicted a season that was slightly below average. It also emphasized the outsize uncertainty in this season’s forecast based on the strange mix of forces brewing in the Atlantic this year.

Typhoon Mawar just dealt a heavy blow to Guam, a US territory in the Pacific where the storm season starts a little earlier. Mawar was the strongest storm to hit the territory in more than two decades when it made a landfall on Wednesday evening.

“We are waking up to a rather disturbing scene out there across Guam. We are looking out our door, and what used to be a jungle looks like toothpicks. It seems like a scene from Twister, where trees are thrashed apart. Likely most of Guam is dealing with a major mess that’s going to take weeks to clean up,” a National Weather Service meteorologist said in a Facebook Live update this morning.

FEMA Adviser: Preparing for the Atlantic Season with Super Typhoon Mawar and Super-Typhoon Criswell

FEMA administrator Deanne Criswell said the storm shows how important it is to prepare for the upcoming Atlantic season. She said at the press conference that the events that are increasing and intensifying are the impacts of super typhoon Mawar. “Regardless of the number of named storms that are out there, regardless of the time of year with whether we’re in the peak of hurricane season or not, it just takes one.”