Rebuke over China’s actions toward Taiwan, the U.S., and the Emergence of a New Era in the Communist Party

While Biden said he now understands that China has no imminent plan to invade Taiwan, he did rebuke Xi over Beijing’s “coercive and increasingly aggressive actions toward” the island, according to the White House. Biden has a foreign policy that looks at the global clash of democracy and autocracy and the fact that relations with Beijing tend to be viewed in this way.

The document, required by Congress, comes 21 months into Biden’s term. The President has focused on rebuilding global partnerships and trying to counter China and Russia throughout his time in office.

The strategy made clear the White House wasn’t looking at the world through the lens of strategic competition, according to Jake Sullivan.

“We will not leave our future vulnerable to the whims of those who do not share our vision for a world that is free, open, prosperous, and secure,” he goes on. “As the world continues to navigate the lingering impacts of the pandemic and global economic uncertainty, there is no nation better positioned to lead with strength and purpose than the United States of America.”

“Russia poses an immediate threat to the free and open international system, recklessly flouting the basic laws of the international order today, as its brutal war of aggression against Ukraine has shown,” the document reads. China is the only competitor that is attempting to change the international order and advance its technological and economic power.

He said that this decade is critical for defining the terms of competition and for getting ahead of massive challenges if we lose the time this decade.

Poised to secure a groundbreaking third term when the Communist Party congress concludes this week, Xi defended his hard-line reign in a sweeping speech and insisted that the party must remain united under his rule against an increasingly hostile West.

He used the term “new era” 39 times in his speech, boasting of the party’s achievements under his leadership. But for some Chinese, it has been a dark era — a shift away from a system that, while authoritarian, tolerated private enterprise and some diversity in public opinion, to one that now espouses a single ideology and a single leader.

But his praise was coupled with a somber warning that the nation must stand united behind the party to cope with a world he depicted as increasingly turbulent — and hostile. His distrust of the world’s other great power was an unmistakable backdrop to that exhortation, despite not mentioning the United States by name.

“Be mindful of dangers in the midst of peace,” Mr. Xi said. “Get the house in good repair before rain comes, and prepare to undergo the major tests of high winds and waves, and even perilous, stormy seas.”

Meanwhile in China: China’s Rise and What It Tells Us About the Status and Future of the Communist Party and the 20th Party Congress

A professor at the party’s top academy helped train many of the high-ranking cadres. An economist who would win China’s top economics prize for 2012. A young historian is planning to teach a class about Chinese history and the Cultural Revolution.

It is difficult to understand that Xi faces many daunting problems. China is reluctant to reveal economic data as the economy has slowed down. A vaccine which used to be used to global diplomacy is a disappointment. And partly because of that, China is imposing draconian lockdowns as the rest of the world gradually returns to normalcy after the pandemic.

In other news from China, the government said it was delaying indefinitely the release of economic data that had been expected to show continued lackluster performance.

CNN has a story on China in its newsletter called Meanwhile in China, which is a three-Times-a-week update about the country’s rise and how it affects the world. Sign up here.

Three years after he became the leader of the Chinese Communist Party, Xi undertook a project to turn thePLA into a world-class fighting force that would compete with the US military.

China now boasts the world’s largest navy, with some of the newest and most powerful warships afloat; an air force with stealth fighter jets and a stealth bomber expected soon; and a rocket force bristling with new missiles that give it a reach unmatched in Asia.

Russia spent billions of dollars apparently modernizing its military, but it turns out that it was, to a large extent, a sham. The supply chains don’t function a short distance from its own borders, and the assessment that Ukraine was desperate to be freed from its own “Nazism” is the result of nodding yes-men.

It should be of concern to anyone who knows anything about China that many analysts see parallels between the problems with Russia in Ukraine and potential weaknesses that could befalls the Chinese military at the 20th Party Congress, which begins Wednesday and is expected to give Xi a third term as both party leader and

“The wheels of history are rolling on towards China’s reunification and the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation. Xi told Congress to applause that complete reunification of the country was needed.

The Communist Party: China’s Navy Xi militarizes Russia intl-hnk-mil-Mil – an open challenge for the Chinese military

Taiwan lies fewer than 110 miles (177 kilometers) off the coast of China. For more than 70 years the two sides have been governed separately, but that hasn’t stopped China’s ruling Communist Party from claiming the island as its own – despite having never controlled it.

Analysts say that would require hundreds of thousands of soldiers in what would be the largest amphibious operation since the Allies stormed ashore at Normandy in German-occupied France in World War II.

The PLA Navy has built a lot of ships, including a new aircraft carrier launched this year and many warships seen by some as the world’s most powerful surface ships.

And as Phillips O’Brien, professor of strategic studies at the University of St. Andrews in Scotland, points out, Taiwan has a relatively cheap way of countering them – by investing in the sort of small, land-based anti-ship missiles that Ukraine has been using to great success against Russia.

China also faces a significant challenge in making sure all the different parts of its now formidable fighting forces pull in the same direction – another issue that has dogged Russia in Ukraine.

It is still in the early stages of creating unified command structures in which naval, air, army and rocket units work together seamlessly to execute a coordinated battle plan.

The command system for joint operations needs to be improved and the PLA needs to have better systems for battlefield support and integrated logistical support according to the work report.

ThePLA’s rocket force sent missiles over Taiwan and their air force flew jets into the Air Defense Identification Zone in the days after the visit.

Four of the top six officers of China’s Central Military Commission (CMC) have reached the normal retirement age of 68 and are being replaced as Xi heads into his third term, according to Joel Wuthnow, a senior research fellow at the Center for the Study of Chinese Military Affairs at the US National Defense University.

The four officers who were leaving had control of the actual fighting forces of thePLA, while the two remaining ones were from within the military, according to a report made last month by the Jamestown Foundation.

Source: https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/19/asia/china-party-congress-xi-military-russia-parallels-intl-hnk-mil-mic/index.html

From Russia to the United States: Why War is Warned? A Commentary on Putin’s Invasion of Ukraine in July 2017

Analysts have warned that language could be a smokescreen for something more sinister – likening it to how Russian President Vladimir Putin refers to his invasion of Ukraine as a “special military operation.”

On August 4, 2017, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army launched a missile to hit designated maritime areas to the east of Taiwan.

China’s state media played down the order but said it could cover things such as providing disaster relief or participating in an international peacekeeping operation.

The outlines aim to protect people and property as well as national sovereignty and safeguard world peace and regional stability, according to the IANS news service.

He wrote in July that the new guidelines on non-war operations would be “a next step in bringing [China’s] military presence out into the world – and likely another step away from the peaceful rise it once promised to the global community.”

CNN’s national security analyst, a vice president at New America, and a professor of practice at Arizona State University is Peter Bergen. Bergen was the author of The Cost of Chaos. The views he expresses are his own. View more opinion on CNN.

To be fair to the United States, there are many problems, including deep political polarization, raging inflation, high inequality, a horrible Covid-19 death toll, frequent mass shootings, unaffordable housing in many places, and intense battles over abortion. The widespread denial of President Joe Biden’s 2020 election victory among Republicans raises serious questions about the health of the nation’s democracy. Still, in many respects, the US looks much better than much of the rest of the world.

Russia and China are two nations that the United States strives most frequently for global influence.

Back then, on the opening day of the Winter Olympics, Putin and Xi declared the two countries had a friendship with “no limits,” with no “forbidden areas of cooperation.” Russian troops crossed the borders of Ukrainian into what many expected to be a fast attack on the democracy next door after denying for months that they intended to invade.

Led by the US, NATO is now stronger than ever, supplying Ukraine with significant amounts of weaponry and bulking up its collective defense spending. NATO will add the previously non-aligned countries of Finland and Sweden. While former President Donald Trump kept threatening to pull the US out of NATO, today the alliance has new relevance.

Meanwhile, American weaponry, such as anti-tank Javelin missiles and High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) that are GPS-guided precision rockets, and US technologies, such as the Starlink satellite-based broadband Internet communication system supplied by Elon Musk, have helped to turn the tide of the war in Ukraine.

Russia and Ukraine with its western backers, are working to turn the screws ahead of a winter which could decide who will win the most titanic clashes of forces in Europe since the Second World War. It’s worth a deep look at what’s in play right now.

Xi Jinping, the United States, Russia, Venezuela and the Crimes of Autocracy: Why China, Iran, Russia and Venezuela Have Been Left Behind

Meanwhile, President Xi Jinping may be taking a victory lap as he is expected to be anointed the leader of the Chinese Communist Party for the third time at the ruling party’s national congress this week, ensuring that he will become the country’s most powerful leader since Mao.

Yet, Xi’s zero-Covid policy has spurred repeated massive lockdowns of China’s cities, which have damaged the nation’s economy and are becoming increasingly unpopular.

The US State Department says that China has imprisoned as many as two million Uyghurs and other ethnic minorities over the past five years, and that it has costly loans for itsBelt and Road policies that have not endeared it to the world. Earlier this year, Pew polling found “negative views of China remain at or near historic highs in many of the 19 countries” where the organization polled.

Despite Xi’s bellicose rhetoric about China’s right to use force to reclaim Taiwan during the Communist Party Congress this week, China must surely have taken notes watching Russia’s failures in Ukraine, which included the sinking of the flagship of the Russian Black Sea fleet, the Moskva in April. Any Chinese invasion of Taiwan would involve crossing a maritime border and launching a naval armada across some 100 miles of water to reach the island.

Another American rival, Iran, is riven by countrywide street protests that are threatening the regime arguably as much as any protests have done since 1979.

Almost seven million people have left Venezuela since the government took over in 2014; 25% of the population have left.

China, Iran, Russia and Venezuela are all autocracies that are not renowned for serving the interests of the people.

The American Economy and Brexit: The Story of Liz Truss and the First Three Years in the Work for the UK, and The New Yorker Cartoon

European countries are generally faring better than the UK but still face their own problems. The dollar, which is at a two-decade high against the Euro, remains strong as the Fed raises interest rates and the American economy continues to be the most dynamic in the world. Indeed, the US has the lowest unemployment rate in five decades. The US is the top producer of both gas and oil.

Former Prime Minister Boris Johnson ran a campaign in 2019 to “Get Brexit Done,” completing the withdrawal from the EU in January 2020. The British were supposed to be freed from the EU’s obligations.

It has proven to be an economic disaster. Many jobs in the UK that were once open to Europeans are not being filled because there aren’t enough Europeans to fill them. The EU has grown by more than the UK in real terms since the referendum six years ago.

Then came UK Prime Minister Liz Truss who wants to cut taxes on the rich in order to keep Britain in the EU. After heightened political outcry and financial turmoil, Truss reversed the tax cut decision, but the damage was done, and the pound fell to historic lows. She announced her resignation under pressure Thursday, on track to becoming Britain’s shortest-serving prime minister.

Conservatives said that the bilateral US-UK trade deal would be the cure for the UK’s economic problems. Truss told reporters in September, “There (aren’t) currently any negotiations taking place with the US, and I don’t have an expectation that those are going to start in the short to medium term.” The Americans have told the Britons that never is ever good for them. To use the great New Yorker cartoon.

Source: https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/20/opinions/america-is-great-again-bergen/index.html

A Red Line In The Sand: Diplomacy, Strategy, And The History of Wars That Might Still Happen: David A. Andelman

American vaccine technology used by Pfizer and Moderna helped to turn the tide against Covid-19 in the United States and other countries that used these vaccines. Chinese and Russian vaccines have been less effective than Covid-19.

Immigration, which is often treated as a problem by Americans, underlines the continuing attraction of the United States. Meanwhile, hundreds of thousands of Russians have fled their homeland since Putin announced a partial mobilization in the war against Ukraine, and tens of thousands have left Hong Kong after the Chinese takeover of the formerly autonomous city.

The author of A Red Line in the Sand: Diplomacy, Strategy, and the History of Wars That Might Still happen is David A. Andelman, a contributor to CNN and twice winner of the Deadline Club Award. He formerly was a correspondent for The New York Times and CBS News in Europe and Asia. The views he gives are of his own. View more opinion at CNN.

First, he’s seeking to distract his nation from the blindingly obvious, namely that he is losing badly on the battlefield and utterly failing to achieve even the vastly scaled back objectives of his invasion.

Second and simultaneously, Putin is playing desperately for time – hoping the political clock and the onset of winter in Europe will sap the will and energies of the Western powers that have all but eviscerated his military-industrial machine and destroyed the armed might of Russia.

This ability to keep going depends on a number of variables, among them the availability of critical and affordable energy supplies for the coming winter, and the popular will across a broad range of nations.

In the early hours of Friday in Belgium, European Union powers agreed on a way to control energy prices that had been spiking after Russia and the UK imposed sanctions on each other.

These include an emergency cap on the benchmark European gas trading hub – the Dutch Title Transfer Facility – and permission for EU gas companies to create a cartel to buy gas on the international market.

French President said that there was a “clear mandate” for the European Commission to start work on a gas cap mechanism.

Europe’s biggest economy, Germany, is skeptical of price caps. The ministers have to work out the details with Germany, who are concerned that caps would encourage higher consumption.

These divisions are a part of Putin’s dream. Manifold forces in Europe could prove central to achieving success from the Kremlin’s viewpoint, which amounts to the continent failing to agree on essentials.

Germany and France are already at loggerheads on many of these issues. There is a conference call scheduled for Wednesday between the French president and the German chancellor.

Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi and the European Commission: Russian aid to the war on the armed forces against Ukraine and the U.S

There is a new government in Italy. The post-fascist aura of her party was brushed aside as she became Italy’s first woman prime minister. One of her far-right partners has expressed admiration for Putin.

At a gathering of his party’s loyalists, Silvio Berlusconi said that he received twenty bottles of vodka from Putin on his 86th birthday.

The other leading member of the ruling Italian coalition, Matteo Salvini, named Saturday as deputy prime minister, said during the campaign, “I would not want the sanctions [on Russia] to harm those who impose them more than those who are hit by them.”

Both Poland and Hungary are against liberal policies of the EU that seemed calculated to reduce their influence at the same time. Hungary’s populist leader Viktor Orban has become a target of Poland’s anger.

The House GOP leader Kevin McCarthy, if Republicans take control of the House next month, said to an interviewer, “I believe people are going to sit in a recession and they’re not going to write a blank check.” They are not going to do it.

The Congressional progressive caucus said on Monday that it wanted Biden to open talks with Russia to bring an end to the conflict, even as missiles and drones are hitting deep into the interior.

Hours later, caucus chair Mia Jacob, facing a firestorm of criticism, emailed reporters with a statement “clarifying” their remarks in support of Ukraine. Dmytro Kuleba was the one Secretary of State Antony Blinken talked to.

Indeed, while the US has proffered more than $60 billion in aid since Biden took office, when Congress authorized $40 billion for Ukraine last May, only Republicans voted against the latest aid package.

This support in terms of arms, materiel and now training for Ukrainian forces have been the underpinnings of their remarkable battlefield successes against a weakening, undersupplied and ill-prepared Russian military.

All these actions point to an increasing desperation by Russia to access vitally-needed components for production of high-tech weaponry stalled by western sanctions and embargos that have begun to strangle the Kremlin’s military-industrial complex.

The report states that Russian production of missiles has stopped because of not enough semi-conductors. Aircraft are being cannibalized for spare parts, plants producing anti-aircraft systems have shut down, and “Russia has reverted to Soviet-era defense stocks” for replenishment. The Soviet era ended more than a quarter of a century ago.

The US announced that it had seized the property of a Russian procurement agent and his agencies, who were responsible for procuring US-origin technologies for Russian end- users.

The Justice Department also announced charges against individuals and companies seeking to smuggle high-tech equipment into Russia in violation of sanctions.

When the Russians realize that they know what they are doing, what they can do and what they don’t: Yanuguchi Yanu told Pol Gubarev

Hardliners like Russian puppet leader of the people in the eastern part of Russia, Pol Gubarev, still have their eyes on Ukrainians. But if you don’t want to be convinced, we’ll kill you. We’ll kill as many as we have to: 1 million, 5 million, or exterminate all of you.”

Mr. Wu said that when the ability to govern decreases, lower-level officials will brew disasters for the common people they rule over.

Many businesspeople have lost money as a result of zero- Covid, a government plan to eradicate the coronaviruses and shut down cities for several weeks.

Despite many conversations over the years, we never talked about politics. I was surprised when he called after the party congress to talk about his “political depression.” He said he used to be very nationalistic, believing that the Chinese were among the smartest and the most hardworking people in the world. Now, he and many of his friends spend most of their time hiking, golfing and drinking. “We’re too depressed to work,” he said.

Source: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/07/business/xi-jinping-china-party-congress.html

The Voice of Joe Biden: A Moment in the Moment of the United States Senate-Brazil Conference and the Rise and Fall of the Bar-Billion Dollar Problem

Until a year ago, his start-up was doing so well, that he was planning to make it public. When cities were locked down because of the “zero- Covid” rule, his new hires sat idly with nothing to do. He is going to have to lay off more than 100 people, and he is also going to have to relocate his family to North America.

The tech entrepreneur from Beijing who texted me after the party congress recounted a chilling experience. In May, when there were rumors that Beijing could be locked down, he felt he could not tell his employees to leave work early and stock up on groceries. He was worried that he could be reported for spreading rumors — something that had gotten people detained by the police. He told them that if they had things to take care of they should be able to leave early.

An aide gave the phone to President Joe Biden after a late-night dinner with Asian leaders.

On the other end of the line was David Trone, the millionaire Maryland wine retailer who was thousands of miles and a time zone 12 hours away and had just clinched another term in the House.

A person familiar with the call said that it was a long call but reflected the warmth and enthusiasm Biden had used in calls to victory over the last week.

After Democrats secured another two years of Senate control, Vice President Joe Biden told reporters in Cambodia that there wasn’t anyone else who was not running on what they did. I am looking forward to the next couple of years, and I feel good.

But on the other side of the world, Biden’s advisers say there has been a tangible effect tied to election results that, had they matched historical trends, threatened to undermine his standing ahead of the most consequential meeting of his first two years.

US national security adviser Jake Sullivan provided a glimpse into the dynamics of the moment, stating that many leaders took note of the results of the congressional elections and came to the president to say that they were following them closely.

“I would say one theme that emerged over the course of the two days was the theme about the strength of American democracy and what this election said about American democracy,” Sullivan told reporters aboard Air Force One as Biden traveled from Phnom Penh to Bali, Indonesia, for the Group of 20 Summit.

The impact of Biden’s meeting with Xi on the US-China relations in the heyday of the Bali G-20 resummation

White House officials, even those who braced for losses in the weeks leading up to election day, have cast aside any reticence to take to their Twitter accounts or to TV interviews to call out pundits and politicians who predicted otherwise.

It’s a reflection – abroad and back in Washington – of a team that officials acknowledge feels constantly underestimated and has long coveted unambiguous success after a relentless and crisis-infused first 21 months in office.

White House officials had been circling the G-20 as the likely sit-down with Xi for months. Both sides prepared in advance of the public announcement of the engagement. The tenuous state of the relationship necessitated a sit down, regardless of domestic politics.

Implicit in a White House mood that has only seemed to grow more buoyant with each new day of called races, the election results prove Biden’s theory of the case is, to some degree, actually working – that an American political landscape that served to rattle allies and foes alike over the last several years was, in fact, stabilizing.

But privately, multiple people familiar with the matter said, there was an awareness of the potential split screen of a US president grappling with his party’s political defeat at the same moment Xi would arrive in Bali at the peak of his power in the wake of the Community Party Congress, during which he secured a norm-breaking third term in power.

Political standing and misrepresentation affect each other, according to one US official. “It’s not the be-all, end-all, and it was never a central focus or driver of the dynamics, but we’re well aware of the fact everyone was watching this election around the world.”

Far from a liability, however, each of the congratulatory calls back home have underscored the driving wind at the back of a president who entered the meeting with Xi at a moment where US-China relations appear to be inching away from great power competition toward inevitable conflict.

“I know I’m stronger,” Biden said, before noting that given his long-standing relationship with Xi formed during their times as their nations’ vice president that the results weren’t a necessity for the meeting to achieve its goals. In a region which has layers of complexity and challenges far greater than what voters decide in a congressional district or swing state, US officials are careful not to overstate the effect on a trip.

Biden is consistently framed as an “inflection point” centered on the battle between democracy and autocracy.

Up until Election Day, opponents and allies were left waiting for Biden to answer those questions with an emphatic “Yes.”

Former President Donald Trump, whose election lies had driven the assault on the US Capitol, hadn’t faded away and he remained the most powerful figure inside the Republican Party.

The sweeping domestic agenda Biden created was a piece of it that was done on a bipartisan basis. Yet he still held an approval rating in the low 40s, weighed down by four-decade high inflation and a population exhausted by years careening from crisis to crisis.

The possibility that Biden would face the same harsh judgment of his first two years in office as nearly all his recent predecessors wasn’t just likely. It was expected to happen.

Instead, as he moved through bilateral meetings and pull-asides, gala dinners and summit gatherings, Biden’s own political vindication served another purpose for his approach on the world stage: Validation.

Biden “feels that it does establish a strong position for him on the international stage and we saw that I think play out in living color today,” Sullivan told reporters after Biden departed the ASEAN-US Summit, as the Xi meeting loomed. “I think we’ll see that equally when we head into both the G20 and to his bilateral engagements in Bali.”

It took two years before the leaders of the United States and China were able to speak in person, but after that it was done at the G20 summit in Indonesia.

Trump’s foreign policy after the Indonesia summit: Where are we going? Beijing’s nuclear agenda in the wake of Xi and Turkey

Nevada Rep. Dina Titus, who faced a tough reelection battle in a redrawn district, had secured another term in office. Biden needed to pass along his congratulations.

The US believes that the Indonesia summit yielded two important outcomes, one in regards to Russia not using a nuke in Ukraine and the other in regards to the climate talks between the US and China.

It was reported that Biden toldXi that Beijing has an obligation to temper the missile and nuclear activity in North Korea that has the Pacific region on edge.

The fact that Washington and Beijing have not been addressing these issues together in recent months demonstrates how badly the world is affected by this.

While Beijing has yet to confirm Xi’s side of the conversation, China’s consummation of a new friendship with Moscow just before the invasion of Ukraine caused alarm in the West. The signals that come out of the talks in Turkey between the US and Russia could be an important indication of how Beijing feels about Washington and the nuclear issue.

After the talks with Beijing on the sidelines of the G20 summit, Leon Panetta, a former CIA chief and White House chief of staff, expressed cautious optimism.

“If the result of this meeting is to put the relationship back on a more diplomatic plane, in which instead of beating each other up they can begin a dialogue on the kind of issues that need to be dealt with, I think this meeting could very well be pivotal,” Panetta told CNN’s John King on “Inside Politics.”

While there is no doubt that the world’s two greatest powers will come to a compromise over their differences, there is no doubt that they will not be able to bring their rivalry to an end.

“Neither side should try to remold the other in one’s own image or seek to change or even subvert the other’s system,” the Chinese Foreign Ministry said.

The US was ready to participate in climate talks at an opportune time, Biden told China’s president. After the talks, a White House readout said that the two leaders “agreed to empower key senior officials to maintain communication and deepen constructive efforts” on climate change, global macroeconomic stability including debt relief, health security and global food security.”

Washington’s foreign policy has come full circle, since part of Richard Nixon’s motivation in engaging China during the 1970s Cold War was to open strategic gaps between Beijing and Moscow.

CNN has spoken with several experts who said that the two countries are still very much aligned, with their shared vision for a new world order.

The meeting could pave the way for stronger ties between the top economic powerhouses. The stock markets in mainland China and Hong Kong rebounded on Tuesday as a result of the strong performance by technology giants.

According to Neil Thomas, senior analyst for China and Northeast Asia at Eurasia Group, the meeting was supposed to build a floor under declining relations between Beijing and Washington.

Ken Cheung, chief Asian foreign exchange strategist at Mizuho Bank, said the meeting was a positive sign that the two sides were keen to find common ground.

Hang Seng, Alibaba, and Tencent soared after the G20 summit: China’s view on the U.S. policy on the Ukraine crisis

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng

            (HSI) Index rallied nearly 4% on Tuesday, on track to record a third straight day of gains. The index, boosted by China’s latest policy shift towards a gradual reopening of borders and a sweeping rescue package for the ailing property sector, has soared 14% since last Thursday.

Chinese technology shares, which had been hammered by a regulatory crackdown at home and rising geopolitical tension abroad, led markets higher on Tuesday. Alibaba shares shot up by 11% in Hong Kong, followed by Tencent, which was up 10%.

They said that the reiteration of the US stance on Taiwan and the One China policy was helpful, as was the speaking out against nuclear weapons by Russia.

“This was far more progress than we, or indeed most commentators had expected, and dominates what may otherwise turn out to have been a fairly irrelevant G20 summit,” the ING analysts said.

After a near three-year absence from the world stage, Chinese leader Xi Jinping has embarked on a whirlwind of face-to-face meetings with world leaders at the Group of 20 summit in Bali, as he looks to reassert China’s global influence.

In a Chinese translation of his meeting with the US vice president, he likened the country’s governance system to “Chinese-style democracy.” The statement appeared to signal to US allies that ideological differences should not become a problem in their relations with Beijing.

The Chinese and French leaders met early in the day on Tuesday, before both showed up at the G20 summit.

“Xi stressed China’s position on the Ukraine crisis is clear and consistent, advocating a ceasefire, a stop to war and peace talks,” a readout of the bilat from Chinese state media CCTV said.

A readout from the French Presidency said the two leaders “reaffirmed their firm position on preventing the use of nuclear weapons” in the war in Ukraine – a line that was not included in the Chinese readout.

France has changed its opinion on China in recent years, viewing the country as a security concern and a competitor.

For the majority of the pandemic Xi limited his diplomatic activities to virtual summits and video conferences, choosing to stay within China, rather than travel overseas.

As the case with the meeting between Xi and Biden, few in Australia expect the meeting between Xi and Albanese can completely reset the two countries’ strained relations.

The two countries have been locked in a bruising trade dispute and diplomatic freeze since early 2020, when China slapped tariffs on Australia following its call for an investigation into the origins of the coronavirus.

Report on the Albanese Meeting at the United Nations High-Energy Metal and Nuclear Power Conference (HAP2M20)

Having the meeting alone is a success, according to Albanese, who said there’s a lack of dialogue at the top level over the last few years.

“It is not in Australia’s interest to not have dialogue with our major trading partners,” he told reporters, adding that there are no preconditions for the meeting.

“Core Chinese objectives such as its South China Sea, Taiwan and South Pacific policies are fundamentally at odds with Australia’s core interests,” said Australian policy expert John Lee, senior fellow at the Hudson Institute think tank in Washington and former national security adviser to the Australian government.

It may be a diplomatic reset of some sorts but not one in substance where both sides approach each other in good faith and ready to compromise, said Lee.

A former CNN producer and correspondent named Fridaghitis is a world affairs columnist. She is a weekly opinion contributor to CNN, a contributing columnist to The Washington Post and a columnist for World Politics Review. Her views are her own and they’re expressed in this commentary. View more opinion on CNN.

The democratic process in the United States is not good enough for autocrats like to say that democracy is not as good as they think it is. The president’s hand was strengthened by the results of the midterms.

This meeting was the perfect moment for it to happen because of the United States’ position in the world and the state of democracy in the country.

Zelensky, Putin, Putin and the Chinese: a triumphant return to Ukraine in the spirit of the Russian invasion of Kherson

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky triumphantly returned to Kherson, one of the provinces that Russian invaders invaded, as he met with Biden and Xi.

Putin and Chinese president, Xi, still have an aura of competence. Their strength seemed to be matched by the efficiency of their regimes. The leader of the free world seemed to be handling the disease better because he didn’t have to deal with the backlash of democracy. Before the Russian invasion ofUkraine, Putin had been basking in his success in multiple military adventures. He was undoubtedly satisfied watching turmoil unfold in the US – one of his goals for years.

Putin, in particular, poses a grave threat. He painted himself into a corner. And he is not about to surrender in Ukraine. While avoiding a direct clash with Putin, NATO and Vice President Biden have been careful to support Ukraine, but a serious escalation by Russia remains the greatest threat in the year ahead.

By the time Xi and Putin met again in September, China had done little to support Russia militarily, and Putin admitted that Xi had “questions and concerns” about Ukraine. After the Russian President said he was going to use nuclear weapons, XI rebuked him.

Putin didn’t attend the G20 summit because he became a pariah on the global stage, avoiding confrontations with world leaders.

The Rise and Fall of the Zelensky Regime: The Case of the Xi, Putin and the U.S. Prime Minister

To be sure, Biden is not the only leader with a strong hand. Xi has just secured an unprecedented third term as China’s leader, and he can now effectively rule for as long as he wants. He doesn’t have to worry about elections, about a critical press or a vociferous opposition party. He is essentially the absolute ruler of a mighty country for many years to come.

Also crucial in the epochal competition between the two systems is showing that democracy works, defeating efforts of autocratic countries such as China and Russia to discredit it and proving that unprovoked wars of aggression, aimed at suppressing democracy and conquering territory, will not succeed.

Michael Bociurkiw is a global affairs analyst and currently based in Odesa. He is a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council. He writes a column for CNN Opinion. The opinions expressed in this commentary are his own. View more opinion at CNN.

Zelensky faces a new dilemma as the war grinds on. How to balance growing pressure from outside for a ceasefire and negotiations with Russia, and expectations within Ukraine for a full Russian withdrawal to pre-2014 lines.

In Paris at the time, I witnessed how Zelensky pulled up to the Élysée Palace in a modest Renault, while Putin motored in with an ostentatious armored limousine. (The host, French President Emmanuel Macron, hugged Putin but chose only to shake hands with Zelensky).

Zelensky is the brand beyond the man. It’s almost impossible these days to dissociate the Ukrainian leader from his olive green t-shirts; worn when meeting everyone from Vogue journalists to military commanders and world leaders.

Zelensky’s impact on the Russian Army and Kremlin: a first interview with Yevhen Hlibovytsky

The Russian likelihood of a defeat is related to the fact that it didn’t win quickly against an inferior opponent. Mouthpieces on state TV talked about the need to “take the gloves off” after Kharkiv, as if they would not be exposing a fist that had already withered. The Russian military will have a difficult time regaining even a semblance of peer status with NATO. The damage to the Kremlin has been caused by mismanagement and the years of effort put into rebuilding its reputation as a smart, asymmetrical foe with conventional forces behind it.

Zelensky was shaped into a punk when he was in the rough neighborhoods of central Ukraine.

“After the full-scale invasion, once he got into a position of being bullied by someone like Vladimir Putin he knew exactly what he needed to do because it was just his gut feeling,” Yevhen Hlibovytsky, former political journalist and founder of the Kyiv-based think tank and consultancy, pro.mova, told me.

This, after all, is the leader who when offered evacuation by the US as Russia launched its full-scale invasion, quipped: “I need ammunition, not a ride.”

Amid the fog of war, it all seems a long, long way since the heady campaign celebration in a repurposed Kyiv nightclub where a fresh-faced Zelensky thanked his supporters for a landslide victory. He looked in a state of disbelief as he stood on the stage to watch the election.

The war appears to have turned his ratings around. Zelensky was given high ratings just days after the invasion, and remained high to this day. Even Americans early in the war rated Zelensky highly for his handling of international affairs – ahead of US President Joe Biden.

He’s in a bubble with people from his career as a TV comedian. Even during the war, a press conference held at the platform of a metro station in April featured a good lighting and camera angles to emphasize a wartime setting.

As for his skills as comforter in chief, I remember well the solace his nightly televised addresses brought in the midst of air raid sirens and explosions in Lviv.

Source: https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/19/opinions/volodomyr-zelensky-profile-ukraine-russia-bociurkiw/index.html

The Time for a New Look at the Zelensky Legacy: Bringing the world together in a pivotal moment in geopolitics

Zelensky is projecting confidence and competence, rather than suits, to a younger, global audience that recognizes it as such, according to a fashion historian.

Journeying to where her husband can’t, Zelenska has shown herself to be an effective communicator in international fora – projecting empathy, style and smarts. Most recently, she met with King Charles during a visit to a refugee assistance center at the Ukrainian Catholic Cathedral of the Holy Family in London. Zelenska was not included on the cover of TIME magazine, and only a passing reference was made in the supporting text.

Despite the strong tailwinds at Zelensky’s back, there are subtle signs that his international influence could be dwindling. For example, last week, in what analysts called a pivotal moment in geopolitics, the G7 imposed a $60 a barrel price cap on Russian crude – despite pleas from Zelensky that it should have been set at $30 in order to inflict more pain on the Kremlin.

Victory will depend on a united front against Russia by the West. Zelensky has been warning the Western leaders that their own security could be in danger if they do not support Ukraine in pushing Putin back.

“Paradoxically, Zelensky achieved the thing that Putin most wanted to achieve but failed … to rally support domestically with a patriotic war in order to deflect and distract from his abject failures at home. Michael Popow, a New York-based strategic and business analyst told me that Putin considers a comedy routine to be painful.

Zelensky said in a recent evening video address that when the world is truly united it is 888-609- 888-609- 888-609- 888-609- 888-609-.

The two leaders will talk about bilateral relations, as well as regional issues and their strategic partnership, Kremlin spokesman said on Thursday.

The First Russian Invasion in the Context of Stimson Center’s Sun: The Recent Developments in the Relations between the United States and Russia

The world looks different since 10 months ago, and the dynamic between both partners has changed as a result.

The Ukrainians said that on Thursday, Russia fired one of the biggest missile barrages since the war began, hitting villages and cities across the country and killing at least three people.

Ukrainian officials have been warned for days that Russia will launch an attack on the power grid, plunging the country into darkness in the early part of December as Ukrainians celebrate Christmas and New Year.

Alfred Zhou, an associate professor at the National University of Singapore’s Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, says that China is becoming more isolated in its stance towards Russia.

Though India has not condemned Moscow’s invasion outright, Modi told Putin in September that now was not the time for war and urged him to move toward peace.

“Now with domestic issues out of the way, Xi is in a better position to work on Russia,” said Stimson Center’s Sun, referring to his consolidation of power in October.

The trade between the countries had increased this year as a result of high energy prices around the world.

“The policy tools Xi Jinping can use to support Russia is quite limited now, it’s quite constrained,” said Wu. “Politically, domestic support for Xi has declined dramatically. His third term doesn’t start with a rosy picture.

Putin believed that he was embarking on a “special military operation” and would end it in a matter of weeks.

War against Ukraine has left Russia isolated with more tumultaneous-ahedral-state-government-religion

The invasion has grown into the biggest land war in Europe since World War II, forcing millions of Ukrainians from their homes, decimating the Ukrainian economy and killing thousands of civilians.

The war has upended Russian life, disrupting the post-Soviet period in which the country pursued democratic reforms, at least financial integration and dialogue with the West.

The military or leadership have had their criticism banned by the country’s strict laws. Nearly 20,000 people have been detained for demonstrating against the war — 45% of them women — according to a leading independent monitoring group.

Lengthy prison sentences have been meted out to high profile opposition voices on charges of “discrediting” the Russian army by questioning its conduct or strategy.

The repressions extend elsewhere: organizations and individuals are added weekly to a growing list of “foreign agents” and “non-desirable” organizations intended to damage their reputation among the Russian public.

The most well-known human rights group in Russia was forced to stop its activities because of the foreign agents law.

The state has also vastly expanded Russia’s already restrictive anti-LGBT laws, arguing the war in Ukraine reflects a wider attack on “traditional values.”

For now, repressions remain targeted. Some of the new laws are still unenforced. But few doubt the measures are intended to crush wider dissent — should the moment arise.

New “fake news” laws made it illegal for leading independent media outlets to relocate abroad, forcing them to close their doors or leave the country.

The internet users have restrictions as well. American social media giants such as Twitter and Facebook were banned in March. Roskomnadzor, the Kremlin’s internet regulator, has blocked more than 100,000 websites since the start of the conflict.

Russian citizens can still access independent sources of information through technical workarounds. Older Russians prefer state media propaganda, with angry TV talk shows spreading their conspiracy theories.

Source: https://www.npr.org/2022/12/31/1145981036/war-against-ukraine-has-left-russia-isolated-and-struggling-with-more-tumult-ahe

Moscow’s “Great Escape” from the First Russian Army Detached in November 2014: Implications for Russian Economy and Security in the Middle East

Thousands of perceived government opponents — many of them political activists, civil society workers and journalists — left in the war’s early days amid concerns of persecution.

Yet Putin’s order to mobilize 300,000 additional troops in September prompted the largest outflow: Hundreds of thousands of Russian men fled to border states including Kazakhstan, Mongolia and Georgia in an attempt to avoid the draft.

Putin argued it was good riddance, part of a “self-cleansing” of Russian society from traitors and spies. Russian officials have suggested that people who left the country be stripped of their passports. Yet there are questions whether Russia can thrive without many of its best and brightest.

Meanwhile, some countries that have absorbed the Russian exodus predict their economies will grow, even as the swelling presence of Russians remains a sensitive issue to former Soviet republics in particular.

The ruble regained value because of Russian price controls. McDonald’s and several other brands ultimately relaunched under new names and Russian ownership. By year’s end, the government reported the economy had declined by 2.5%, far less than most economists predicted.

Some good came from this debacle. Europe knows it needs to get off of its dependence on Russian gas immediately as long as economic reliance on fossil fuels can’t bring lasting stability.

The economic damage has ended Putin’s “stability” reputation which was once a key factor in his support among Russians who watched the fall of the USSR.

The government’s tone when it comes to Russia’s military campaign hasn’t changed. Russia’s Defense Ministry provides daily briefings recounting endless successes on the ground. Putin assures everyone that everything is going according to plan.

Yet the sheer length of the war — with no immediate Russian victory in sight — suggests Russia vastly underestimated Ukrainians’ willingness to resist.

Russian troops were not able to conquer the second city of Kharkiv. Kherson, the sole major city seized by Russia, was abandoned amid a Ukrainian counteroffensive in November. Russian forces have been bombarding the city.

The number of Russian men who lost their lives was officially reported to be under 6,000. Western estimates place those figures much higher.

A series of explosions, including along a key bridge connecting Russia to Crimea, which it annexed in 2014, have put into question Russia’s ability to defend its own strategic infrastructure.

Indeed, Russia’s invasion has — thus far — backfired in its primary aims: NATO looks set to expand towards Russia’s borders, with the addition of long-neutral states Finland and Sweden.

Longtime allies in Central Asia have criticized Russia’s actions out of concern for their own sovereignty, an affront that would have been unthinkable in Soviet times. India and China have purchased discounted Russian oil, but they haven’t supported Russia in its military campaign.

Russia’s State of the Nation, and the Unification of the West with the United States (and Russia) Since the War of 1919: What Do We Expect?

The state of the nation address was scheduled to take place in April but it won’t be happening until next year. Putin’s annual “direct line” — a media event in which Putin fields questions from ordinary Russians — was canceled outright.

The yearly December big press conference, where the Russian leader can handle questions from pro-Kremlin media, was tabled until 2023.

The Kremlin has given no reason for the delays. The Russian leader has been in a position to share good news since the war began but has run out of it.

Its invasion in February managed to startle in every way. To those who thought Moscow was sane enough to not attempt such a massive and foolhardy undertaking. To those who believed the Russian military would arrive in 40 million people and wreak havoc within 10 days. And to those who felt they had the technical and intelligence prowess to do more than just randomly bombard civilian areas with ageing artillery; that the Kremlin’s military had evolved from the 90s levelling of Grozny in Chechnya.

And finally, to those who felt nuclear saber-rattling was an oxymoron in 2022 – that you could not casually threaten people with nukes as the destruction they brought was complete, for everyone on the planet.

Europe isn’t welcoming in an era of greater security because of the Russian decline. Calls for greater defense spending are louder, and heeded, even if they come at a time when Russia, for decades the defining issue of European security, is revealing itself to be less threatening.

Russia has also met a West that, far from being divided and reticent, was instead happy to send some of its munitions to its eastern border. Russian officials might not be as surprised by the red lines shifting as they realize how limited their options are. This was never supposed to happen. Now that Europe has it, what do it do to prepare?

Key is just how unexpectedly unified the West has been. Despite being split over Iraq, fractured over Syria and partially unwilling to spend 2% of GDP on security the United States demands of NATO members, Europe and the US have all been speaking the same script on Ukraine. At times, Washington may have seemed warier, and there have been autocratic outliers like Hungary. The shift is towards unity, not disparity. That’s quite a surprise.

Declarations that Russia has already lost the war remain premature. There are still variables which could lead to a stalemate or reversal of fortune. NATO could lose patience or nerve over weapons shipments, and seek economic expediency over long-term security, pushing for a peace unfavorable to Kyiv. But that does, at this moment, seem unlikely.

And finally, Moscow is left with a question nobody ever wants to learn the answer to: if its supply chains for diesel fuel for tanks 40 miles from its border do not function, then how can they be sure The Button will work, if Putin reaches madly to press it? There is no greater risk to a nuclear power than to reveal its missiles and counter-measures do not work.

So, how does the West deal with a Russia that has experienced this colossal loss of face in Ukraine and is slowly withering economically because of sanctions? Is a weak Russia something to fear, or just weak? This is the known unknown the West must wrestle with. It is no longer frightening.

The most urgent and daunting task facing China in the new year is how to handle the fallout from its botched exit from zero-Covid, amid an outbreak that threatens to claim hundreds of thousands of lives and undermine the credibility of Xi and his Communist Party.

Some countries seem cautious in receiving Chinese tourists due to new requirements for a negative Covid test before travel, as the tightly-sealed borders are gradually opening up. It is another question as to how long global visitors will stay in China.

“We have now entered a new phase of Covid response where tough challenges remain,” Xi said in a nationally televised New Year’s Eve speech. The light of hope is right in front of us, as everyone is holding on with fortitude. Let’s make an extra effort to pull through, as perseverance and solidarity mean victory.”

There was an explosion of cases with little preparation in place to handle the surging number of patients and deaths.

Hospitals are overwhelmed, doctors are stretched too far, and crematoriums are struggling to keep up with bodies as the country’s fragile heath system scrambles to cope.

The experts are warning that the worst is yet to come. Less developed cities and the vast rural hinterland are still bracing for more infections despite some major metropolises seeing the peak of the outbreak.

The travel rush for the Lunar New Year, the most important festival for family reunion in China, begins this week and as a result hundreds of Millions of people will return to their hometowns from big cities.

The government has launched a booster campaign for the elderly, but many remain reluctant to take it due to concerns about side effects. Fighting vaccine hesitancy requires significant time and effort, as the country’s medical workers are already stretched thin.

Chinese economy after the December 26 terror attack: Do we know what to expect from the onset of the Covid outbreak? An analyst’s perspective

If China growth picks up, it will give a boost to the economies that depend on Chinese demand. There will be more international travel and production. Increasing demand will rise prices of energy and raw materials, putting upward pressure on global inflation.

Bo Zhuang, senior analyst at a Boston-based investment firm, said that China is not prepared to deal with Covid.

The economy is expected to recover after March. HSBC economists project a contraction in the first quarter, but a growth of 5% over the course of the next five years.

Chinese citizens are happy about the partial reopening of the border after the end of the international arrivals and outbound travel quarantines.

There was concern online about the rapid easing of restrictions during the outbreak, but many are planning to go abroad and travel websites recorded huge spikes in traffic within minutes of the announcement on December 26.

Several Chinese nationals overseas told CNN they had been unable or unwilling to return home for the last few years while the lengthy quarantine was still in place. That stretch meant major life moments missed and spent apart: graduations, weddings, childbirths, deaths.

Some countries have offered a warm welcome back, with foreign embassies and tourism departments posting invitations to Chinese travelers on Chinese social media sites. Many countries are more cautious with travelers from China because of new testing requirements.

The regulations that were in place over the past three years were tossed aside. China did not use the time to stock up on certain drugs. Hundreds of millions have been infected, according to reports citing an internal estimate from China’s top health officials, and various models predict more than a million deaths.

China’s reputation and relations are being watched to see if it can repair them after it emerges from self-imposed isolation.

The Last 12 Years of Democracy: The Triumphs of Autocracy, the Plight of Leaders, and the Future of the World

The freeze on in-person exchanges between policy advisers, business groups and the wider public was caused by the lack of face-to-face diplomacy.

Communication lines are back open and more high-level exchanges are in the pipeline – with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, French President Emmanuel Macron, Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte and Italy’s newly elected Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni all expected to visit Beijing this year.

Both leaders expressed a message of unity, with Xi saying the two countries should “strengthen strategic coordination” and “inject more stability into the world,” according to Chinese state media Xinhua.

The director of the China Program at the Washington-based think tank Stimson Center said that the war has had a bad effect on China’s interest in Europe. “But the damage is not significant enough that China will abandon Russia.”

Notice that it was an open question. At the time, many believed that autocracy would not only win, but would prove to be the better system. How many believe that today?

How many believe Russia, China or Iran offer a better model than an open society with all its foibles and challenges? How many believe the US would be better off with a more autocratic president?

The contest between democracy and autocracy is far from over, but autocracy’s appeal has diminished in the past 12 months due to the very public display of its fatal flaws. When you can’t tell leaders they’re wrong, they will make mistakes – even catastrophic ones. Even though the ruler is strong and ruthless, no one would dare challenge his wisdom even if he led the nation toward a cliff.

The autocracy brothers wanted their system to be thought of as superior, so they would whisper any doubts about it at home. According to the non-partisan democracy monitor Freedom House, democracy has been losing ground for 16 consecutive years. In research, it was shown that 20% of the world’s population lived in Free countries.

In 2022, while these global strongmen struggled, self-assured “geniuses” like Elon Musk – who more than once appeared to side with autocrats – revealed their own shortcomings, and oppressed populations fed up with decades of tyranny demanded change.

The World’s Voice – A Tale of Two Winds: Democracy in the Aftermath of the Russian Invasion and the Second Cold War

The invasion strengthened NATO, a democratic defense alliance, in a way nothing had in decades. The countries that cherished their neutrality, like Sweden and Finland, wanted to join.

Iran’s theocracy was the center of protests against it by women. The regime – not coincidentally now supplying arms to Russia – responded with more violence, killing hundreds, according to human rights organizations.

No one expected the “Woman, Life, Freedom” activists to continue defying the regime and its brutality. How far will they go? How much will they be snuffed out by the regime? The world’s will respond.

Source: https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/06/opinions/democracy-china-russia-2023-ghitis/index.html

The Birth of a Nation: The Case of the New President, Boris Trump and the Brazilian populists after he lost the Brazilian presidential election

Former President Donald Trump launched a new presidential campaign. The British said it was a lead balloon. He is becoming an even more pathetic figure after many of his top choices failed in the elections. Despite his calls for Republicans to unite behind Kevin McCarthy as the new Speaker, this week the rebellion did not seem to end. The fight over the speakership seemed chaotic, but it was democracy that was on display. And of course, Trump’s legal troubles seem endless.

In Brazil, Trump’s doppelganger, Jair Bolsonaro, lost his bid for reelection. Like Trump, he refused to admit defeat or attend the inauguration of the man who defeated him, President Luiz Inácio “Lula” da Silva. Instead, a grim Bolsonaro decamped to Florida.

Boris Johnson, a populist populist lost the UK’s premier’s office after an embarrassing get-acquainted with hapless Liz Truss, and was replaced by a non-populist centrist. Back when Johnson was leading his country out of the European Union, populists across Europe wanted their own versions of Brexit. We don’t hear that anymore. Marine Le Pen, like other European populists, had to get rid of her close ties to Putin due to her losing the presidential election.