Australia’s international student population is under threat: Why the student caps need to go up fast, or why universities shouldn’t be changing their minds

The idea of continually increasing international enrolees to cover the costs of research infrastructure was never sustainable, says Crossley. “That said, I wasn’t expecting cuts to international student numbers. If the cuts are rapid as planned, that will affect Australia’s research capacity, prosperity and culture of curiosity if we cannot find a way to bolster the sector.

The plan is being criticized by many researchers who are not sure it will work. In a commentary on The Conversation in AugustNorton said the caps could result in a situation in which some universities would be forced to turn away international students who they’re not going to enroll in. Norton says it’s likely that many prospective students will abandon plans to come to Australia if they can’t get into their chosen institutions and adds that the plan is unlikely to improve housing availability as intended. A report by the Student Accommodation Council, an industry group, found that international students in Australia make up just 4% of the total rental market. The chief executive of the Regional Universities Network told the Sydney Morning Herald in September that the student caps seem to allow for growth at some universities, but are still below pre-pandemic levels.

The cap would kick in at the beginning of the 20th century if parliamentary approval is given by 1 January. Although the bill was originally supported by the opposition Coalition government, a surprise announcement in early November revealed the Coalition party intends to vote against the bill. Universities and other educational institutes have spent months planning for the caps, assuming they would be implemented.

The future of Australian research: where, where and how we are focusing and what’s happening in the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander communities

There were deep frustrations in the early and mid career researcher communities, which could have lasting effects according to Kelly Kirkland, a psychologist who helped prepare the survey. She says that with job prospects narrowing, many are looking abroad, and that could result in a “brain drain” that would really impact the quality of Australian research.

Crossley is also hopeful that the sector can build strength and says the suggested changes to research funding in the Universities Accord is a great place to start. Those suggestions — which include bulking up investment in basic research, attracting more students by removing barriers to research training and implementing fairer stipends — could help plot a path towards a more sustainable future for Australian research.

Australia has a lot of work to do to strengthen its global standing in science, but it also needs domestic improvements in the way Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people are engaged with in research. The movement towards data-sharing and collaboration can be positive, but only if institutions change their attitudes and systems. The knowledge and expertise of First Nations people are increasingly being used to inform studies in the environmental sciences and other areas. Measures to ensure that this is done respectfully and responsibly are crucial if Australia wants to elevate the quality and impact of its research.

According to Emma Lee, a trawlwulwuy woman of tebrakunna country, in northeast Tasmania, and a sociologist at Federation University in Victoria, “There are some amazing federal government policies and strategies that are genuinely elevating Indigenous commercial and conservation acumen as central to Australia’s economic future.” Lee highlights the Sustainable Ocean Plan, a government initiative to manage and protect Australia’s marine environment, as an example of strong collaborative work. She notes how the Australian department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water has focused on the needs of the indigenous people, and highlights the importance of Indigenous knowledge to inform food security and conserve the environment. She also states that there are some good works being done in the farming sector to achieve Australia’s legislated target of net zero greenhouse-gas emissions by mid-century.

During the mining boom of the early 2000s, Australia’s research and development (R&D) intensity, a term to describe R&D expenditure as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP), was at its peak. It’s decline has been in line with the trends of other Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development economies. Whereas the average R&D intensity of the OECD group grew from 2.3% of GDP in 2008 to 2.7% in 2021, Australia’s dropped from 2.25% in 2009 to 1.68% in 2022, its lowest level in 20 years.

Another stark change is the increase in open access, or free to read, papers over this time. Navigator stated that 65 of the publications funded by the Arc were pay-to-read in 2015, and the status of the rest is unknown. When free-to-read papers started to go up, the numbers kept on being the same. By the year 2020, free-to-read publications would make up 60% of papers and 29% would be pay-to-read.

The biggest topic areas in ARC-funded research between 2015 and 2024 are computational models and algorithms, and clinical studies and public health, accounting for 103,840 and 101,586 publications, respectively, of the total 212,979 for the period, according to Navigator (papers can be related to one or more topic and subtopic). Computational modelling and numerical methods are related to 101,866 publications within the field. Within clinical studies and public health, 77,845 publications were related to the ‘clinical interventions and health services research’ subtopic, according to Navigator.

The Nature Index shows that Australia has recorded the lowest adjusted Share in the top 20 countries over the course of the past four years. Australia dropped from 10th place to 12th in three years, overtaken by India and Italy.

These charts highlight the strongest institutional players in a sector that needs to regain its footing in an increasingly competitive global research landscape.