The State of Ukraine: NATO, NATO and the Kremlin’s Special Military Operation on Crimea (State of UkrainePodcast)
Russia’s parliament will approve the annexation of four Ukrainian territories, which were condemned internationally as illegal. On Monday, the lower house unanimously approved it. The upper house is expected to pass it on Tuesday.
Putin delivered his remarks days ahead of the one-year anniversary of the Kremlin’s full-scale invasion of its neighbor. The assembled audience included uniformed soldiers the Kremlin said had come directly from the frontlines of Moscow’s “special military operation” in Ukraine.
Sept. 27: Russia claimed that staged referendums in four occupied regions of Ukraine showed the people chose to join the Russian Federation. Many countries, including the United Nations, have called the process a sham.
The leaders of nine European countries issued a statement in support of Ukraine joining NATO. And Pope Francis made a strong plea for Putin to end the war.
Past recaps can be found here. You can get more context and in-depth coverage from NPR here. Stay up to date on the State of Ukraine with the NPR’s State of UkrainePodcast.
Nuclear deterrence exercises will be held by NATO. NATO warned Russia against using nuclear weapons on Ukraine, but said the “Steadfast Noon” drills were a routine annual training activity.
Russia has since launched air strikes on civilian infrastructure in an attempt to force the Ukrainians into submission during the winter months. There are no signs thatUkrainians are backing down in the face of the bombing campaign.
Russian agents detained eight people on Oct. 12 suspected of carrying out a large explosion on a bridge to Crimea, including Russian, Ukrainian and Armenian citizens.
Two men shot at Russian troops preparing to deploy to Ukraine, killing 11 people and wounding 15 before being killed themselves, Russia’s Defense Ministry said on Oct. 15.
There are now Russian troops in Belarus, the first convoys of nearly 9000 service members due to arrive as part of a ” regional grouping” of forces to protect it from the threats of the West.
A year since Vladimir Putin ordered his forces to invade Ukraine, the war is far from over. However bravely Ukrainians fight on, and however muddled the performance of Russia’s military, Ukraine cannot prevail without continued and substantial Western assistance. Since the invasion, that has swelled to over $150 billion in American and European spending, and the weapons supplied to Ukraine now include the latest Western tanks and antiaircraft systems.
CNN’s Jim Sciutto reported this week that the US and its allies believed that Russia’s coming offensive was unlikely to result in major battlefield gains. A senior military official said it’s likely more aspirational than realistic. There are also doubts whether Ukrainian forces have the capacity to sever entrenched Russian defenses in the east and southern areas in a way that could threaten Putin’s land bridges to Crimea. At a NATO defense ministers meeting on Wednesday, Stoltenberg said that the conflict was being turned into a grinding war of attrition.
David A. Andelman, a contributor to CNN and author of “A Red line in the Sand: Diplomacy, Strategy, and the History of Wars that Might Still Happen”, is a member of the French Legion of Honor. He was a correspondent for CBS News in Europe and Asia. The views expressed in this commentary are his own. CNN has more opinion.
He is seeking to distract from the obvious fact that he is failing to achieve his objectives and is losing badly on the battlefield.
Yet Western logic about what is happening in the war may only disguise insight into Putin’s mindset. The Russian leader long saw the world through a different strategic and historic lens. Even though they were not in the US government, many foreign watchers believed that Russia wasn’t interested in invading Ukraine. He’s showing no sign of being deterred by a year of defeats and a stunning influx of sophisticated NATO weapons and ammunition into Ukraine. He’s sending Russian convict recruits to their deaths in futile World War I-style advances even though Russian forces have already suffered massive losses.
The European Union and Russia: Implications for the EU, France, and the European Union during the Cold War – a warning from the German-French president
This ability to keep going depends on a host of variables – ranging from the availability of critical and affordable energy supplies for the coming winter, to the popular will across a broad range of nations with often conflicting priorities.
European Union powers agreed on a plan to control energy prices after the embargo on Russian imports and the cut of natural gas supplies from the Kremlin.
These include an emergency cap on the benchmark European gas trading hub – the Dutch Title Transfer Facility – and permission for EU gas companies to create a cartel to buy gas on the international market.
While praising the European unity of the summit, which he said had maintained it, he admitted that there was only a clear mandate for the European Commission to start working on a gas cap mechanism.
Europe’s biggest economy, Germany, is skeptical of price caps. Germany is worried that caps on consumption would encourage higher consumption, which would be bad for restricted supplies.
These divisions are all part of Putin’s fondest dream. Europe could prove central to achieving success from the Russian viewpoint, which is that the continents don’t agree on essentials.
Germany and France are already at loggerheads on many of these issues. A conference call has been scheduled between the German Chancellor and the French President.
Source: https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/25/opinions/putin-prolonge-war-ukraine-winter-andelman/index.html
Italy’s New Prime Minister, Silvio Berlusconi, and the U.S. in the Post-Fascist Era
And now a new government has taken power in Italy. Italy has its first woman prime minister in a long time, and she tried to brush aside the post-fascist aura of her party. One of her far right coalition partners has expressed their admiration for Putin.
At a gathering of his loyalists, Berlusconi talked about how Putin sent him 20 bottles ofvodka and a letter on his 86th birthday.
The other leading member of the ruling Italian coalition, Matteo Salvini, named Saturday as deputy prime minister, said during the campaign, “I would not want the sanctions [on Russia] to harm those who impose them more than those who are hit by them.”
Since Poland and Hungary are both against liberal policies of the EU that seemed calculated to decrease their influence, they disagree over the issue of Ukraine. Poland has taken deep offense at the pro-Putin sentiments of Hungary’s populist leader Viktor Orban.
Comments by both Democrats and Republicans show that while Biden can promise the US is with Ukraine for as long as it takes, he doesn’t have a surety that it will happen. The United States’ election in 2024 may be as important as the one in Ukraine.
The Congressional progressive caucus on Monday called on Biden to open talks with Russia to end the conflict, because Russian troops are still occupying vast stretches of the country, and there are missiles and drones in the interior.
Hours later, caucus chair Mia Jacob, facing a firestorm of criticism, emailed reporters with a statement “clarifying” their remarks in support of Ukraine. Secretary of State Antony Blinken also called his Ukrainian counterpart Dmytro Kuleba to renew America’s support.
The US has offered more than $60 billion in assistance since the Biden took office, and only Republicans voted against the latest aid package.
The impact of Western sanctions is poised to develop into a crisis over time. Bloomberg Economics estimates that Putin’s war in Ukraine will slash $190 billion off Russia’s gross domestic product by 2026 compared with the country’s prewar path.
Russian production of hypersonic missiles has all but ceased “due to the lack of necessary semi-conductors,” said the report. Aircraft are being cannibalized for spare parts, plants producing anti-aircraft systems have shut down, and “Russia has reverted to Soviet-era defense stocks” for replenishment. The Soviet era ended more than 30 years ago.
CNN reported that the Biden administration raised concerns with Beijing about whether Chinese companies have sold weapons to Russia for use in Ukraine, which they hoped to determine how much Beijing knew about it.
The Department of Justice has filed charges against companies and individuals who try to sneak high-tech equipment into Russia.
World Affairs: The Case for a War between the Russian Revolutionary Guard and the U.S. and the Russian Peculiar Force
The moral and ethical obligation of the world’s democracies to help a nation whose freedom is threatened by an authoritarian power is the first reason that prompted an immediate response from the West. National self-determination has long been a guiding principle of American foreign policy. It has been honored imperfectly in various U.S. administrations. It is valuable in finding a way to move forward. The principle of principle was violated when Mr. Putin sent a column toward the Ukrainian government to overthrow it.
Pavel Gubarev, leader of the Russian puppet in the Ukrainian city of Donetsk, said that they wouldn’t kill you, but would convince you. But if you don’t want to be convinced, we’ll kill you. We’ll kill as many as we have to: 1 million, 5 million, or exterminate all of you.”
Former CNN PRODUCER and correspondent Frida Ghitis is a world affairs columnist. She is a weekly opinion contributor to CNN, a contributing columnist to The Washington Post and a columnist for World Politics Review. The views expressed in this commentary are her own. View more opinion on CNN.
Over the last year, the US and allies have sent nearly 50 billion dollars in aid to the Ukrainian military. The Pentagon is racing to re-arm, embark on the biggest increase in ammunition production in decades, and put portions of the US defense industry on war footing despite America technically not being at war.
But to apply the special case of negotiation — with few parameters and a narrow range of outcomes — to a complex, fluid and much wider geopolitical rivalry is a category error. There is no separate category of actions that the West or Ukrainians can take that will automatically cause a nuclear war with Russia. Russia has no red lines, they have a variety of options and perception of their relative risks and benefits. The West should use diplomacy to shape these perceptions so that Russia chooses the option that the West likes the most.
Early in the conflict, I wrote an analysis explaining the limits of what the US and its allies would and would not do in Ukraine. Those limits have been contentious from the start and are only growing more so today as Russia accuses the West of going too far.
If Russia is allowed to win, Putin’s war would mark the beginning of a new era of global instability, with less freedom, less peace and less prosperity for the world.
There are repercussions to anything that happens far from the battlefields. The Saudis are accused by the US of helping Russia pay for the war by boosting its oil revenues. The Saudis deny the accusation.
Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz has stated that Israel won’t move its systems to Ukraine because they have to share their airspace with Russia.
Russian Navy ships hit at the dock of the Crimean port, temporarily suspending an agreement allowing Ukraine’s maritime corridors to reopen. It was immediately followed by a rise in wheat prices on global commodity markets. Those prices partly determine how much people pay for bread in Africa and across the planet.
Higher prices not only affect family budgets and individual lives. When they come with such powerful momentum, they pack a political punch. In countless countries, the incumbent political leaders are being attacked by inflation worsened by the war.
The End of the War for Ukraine: The U.S. Contributions to the United Nations Development Program and the Defense of the Ukraine’s Nuclear Infrastructure
It is not all on the fringes. McCarthy said that the GOP may choose to reduce aid to the Ukranian people. Progressive Democrats released and withdrew a letter calling for negotiations. Evelyn Farkas, a former Pentagon official during the Obama administration, said they’re all bringing “a big smile to Putin’s face.”
In a major victory for Ukraine that Zelensky called “the beginning of the end of the war,” Russian forces abandoned Kherson to avoid a battlefield rout. The Western-backed Ukrainians continue their successful push against the invasion that Russian President Vladimir Putin launched in February just days after meeting with Xi in Beijing.
Some Republicans warned that the party could limit funding for Ukraine if they won control of the House of Representatives in the election, which begins this week.
Turkey’s president is hosting the Swedish prime minister on Tuesday. Erdogan insists Sweden must meet certain conditions before it can join NATO.
Ukrainians are expected to be on the agenda when the United Nations General Assembly takes place on Wednesday.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy accused Russia of “energy terrorism,” as attacks on Ukraine’s infrastructure left more than 4 million Ukrainians without electricity.
Russia rejoined a UN brokered deal to export grains and other agricultural goods from Ukraine on November 2. Russia stopped its part in the deal because of the Ukrainian attack on the Black Sea ships.
For the first time, the Biden administration is going to provide a more than $1 billion in military assistance to Ukraine. The U.S. has supplied one of the most advanced and expensive defense systems to date.
The Perfect Moment to Celebrate Putin and Xi at the G20 Summit in Poland and the World’s Largest Autocrats
It took the US and China two years to speak in person, but the leaders of both countries got together at the G20 summit on Monday.
A well-functioning democratic process in the US is likely disappointing to Xi and other autocrats hoping that deep divisions not only continue to weaken the country from within but also prove that democracy is chaotic and ineffective, inferior to their autocratic systems, as they like to claim. The American President had a stronger hand to play as a result of the elections.
That’s not the only reason, however, why this was the perfect moment — from the standpoint of the United States and for democracy — for this meeting to occur: There’s much more to this geopolitical moment than who controls the US House of Representatives and Senate.
The president of Ukraine returned to Kherson, the one provincial capital that Russian invaders had conquered, as Biden and the Chinese president sat next to him.
Putin and Xi, the world’s leading autocrats, looked ascendant, unstoppable even. violent protests against Covid-19 restrictions roiled Western democracies. Putin was getting ready for victory. Xi was hosting the Olympics, basking in attention, and preparing to solidify his control of China.
Biden overshadowed Putin this week with his speech in Polish capital, a location chosen for its role on NATO’s frontline, as well as his daring overnight train journey into Kyiv. In his address to the Russian parliament, Putin sprinkled with his familiar threats and conspiracy theories about the West.
There is talk of a Chinese leader visiting Moscow in the coming months, which could potentially affect the relationship between the two countries. Putin sent his “sincere greetings” to Xi this week and said he was looking forward to welcoming “my friend” to Moscow, referring to the Chinese leader in his meeting with Wang this week.
Tellingly, Putin chose not to attend the G20 summit in Bali, avoiding confrontations with world leaders as he increasingly becomes a pariah on the global stage.
Xi Biden: A Powerful Leader of the United Kingdom and the Case for Security and Security in the War on Ukrainian Front Lines
To be sure, Biden is not the only leader with a strong hand. Xi has just secured an unprecedented third term as China’s leader, and he can now effectively rule for as long as he wants. He does not have to worry about elections, a critical press or a vociferous opposition party. He is essentially the absolute ruler of a mighty country for many years to come.
And yet Xi faces a mountain of daunting problems. China is reluctant to reveal data because of the slowing economy. China’s Covid-19 vaccine, once a tool of global diplomacy, is a disappointment. China is imposing a lot of strictures because of that as the rest of the world slowly recovers after the Pandemic.
It is essential that democracy is shown to work by defeating attempts of autocratic countries such as China and Russia to undermine it and prove that wars of aggression are not effective in suppressing democracy.
Nine months in, Russian hopes of a swift seizure have been well and truly dashed, its army largely on the defensive across more than 600 miles of battle lines strung along the eastern and southern reaches of Ukraine.
And in an opinion article by CNN’s Peter Bergen, retired US General and former CIA Chief David Petraeus said the conflict would end in a “negotiated resolution” when Putin realizes the war is unsustainable on the battlefield and on the home front.
“And because Russia is the most disadvantaged now, it will benefit Russia the most and then renew the war. A truce buys you more time in the war. It wouldn’t resolve any of the underlying issues of the war,” he added.
Already, Russia is beginning to rearm, experts say. One of the most crucial aspects of this war was the availability of weapons. You cannot make them in a month if you burn through 9 million rounds. He mentioned the issue of the production rate and mobilizeability.
Kofman cited available information showing that the manufacture of munitions – which have been the staples of the exchanges so far along Ukrainian front lines – has gone from two, and in some factories to three, shifts a day in Russia. He thinks that if they have component parts, they would not be able to double and triple shifts.
Ukranian President and Chief of Staff Mark Milley: ‘We Must Have a Negotiation,’ Jeremy Fleming, at the Centre for New American Security
When there is a chance to negotiate, seize it. General Mark Milley, chairman of the US Joint Chief of Staff, urged them to seize the moment.
Russia will just wait it out if it doesn’t happen before then, said Dougherty. They have a smaller front to defend after being pushed back during the Fall offensive.
Petro Poroshenko, a former president of Ukranian, told the council how Ukrainians understand negotiations. A killer walks into a house, kills a wife, rapes a daughter, and opens a door for the second floor, where you can see him again. Let’s have a negotiation.’ What would you make of it?
General Mick Ryan, a fellow of the Center forStrategic and International Studies, told me that giving the Russians time to regroup would relieve the pressure on their forces. “They have been at it hard for nine months. Their forces are exhausted.”
That sentiment was voiced last month by Jeremy Fleming, head of Britain’s top-secret electronic espionage agency GCHQ. “We know – and Russian commanders on the ground know – that their supplies and munitions are running out,” said Fleming.
That’s “basically any big command post or ammo dump they pulled back beyond the 80-kilometer range,” he explained. In some cases, inside Russian territory, as well as in many instances, just inside the US.
The Russians have largely figured out the threat. “The Russians have seemingly adapted to the presence of HIMARs [American-supplied artillery] on the battlefield by pulling their big ammo depots back outside of the range,” Chris Dougherty, a senior fellow for the Defense Program and co-head of the Gaming Lab at the Center for New American Security in Washington, told me in an interview.
He’s likely to give up lightly in this war, which is not just a territorial dispute. He believes that Ukraine must be folded into Russia if it is to be a country. His survival in power could depend on how he is seen to have lost. After the annexation of the Crimean Peninsula, Putin has already been at war in Ukranian.
The reality is that the US and the western alliance must be looking as far into the future as Putin and those in the Kremlin who could succeed him. Will the commitment to the fight persist in the future?
They will get tired of this war at some point, he said. The Russian mindset may become the one where they don’t have everything they want. But we’ll have a big chunk of the Donbas and will annex that into Russia and we’ll hold onto Crimea. I believe that they are making a bet right now.
But were the war to resume months or years from now, there’s a real question as to whether the US and its allies would be prepared to return to a conflict that many are beginning to wish was already over.
Detention after the Bout case: Brittney Griner returns to the U.S. after spending 13 months in the Kremlin prison
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has threatened a ban on the Russian Orthodox Church in Ukranians, and the raids on churches that are suspected of links to Moscow have been stepped up.
French PresidentEmmanuelMacron will host Ursula von der Leyen and the Norwegian prime minister for dinner in Paris on Monday.
In France, on Tuesday, a conference will be held to support Ukrainians through the winter and will feature a video address by the Ukrainian President.
U.S. basketball star Brittney Griner was freed Dec. 8 after nearly 10 months in Russian detention and following months of negotiations. Her release came in exchange for the U.S. handing over convicted Russian arms dealer Viktor Bout. Griner is back in the U.S. and reunited with her wife. The man is reported to have joined a party that supports ultranationalism.
The Russian Invasion of Melitopol, Ukraine: A Conversation with Volodymyr Viatrovych, a Military Veteran, and the President’s Legacy
Russia is a giant producer of fuel and oil. The Russian oil, gas and diesel that European countries used DropCatch DropCatch, causing a steep spike in prices. The price hike has been alleviated by moves to lock in alternative sources, along with a mild winter. Prices are back to pre-invasion levels.
Ukraine hit targets in the Russian-occupied city of Melitopol, including a church reported to be used as a Russian military base. Officials said Ukrainian forces used long-range artillery to reach targets in the city in southeastern Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia region.
Russian forces turned the city of Bakhmut into burned ruins, Zelenskyy said. Russia is attempting to advance on the city, which is located in the eastern Donbas region.
On Dec. 11, Zelenskyy had a phone call with the President, as well as the leaders of Turkey, France and Guadeloupe, in what was seen as a step up of diplomacy over the Russian invasion.
The Russian empire began to grow with Ukraine. In the mind of many Russians, their empire cannot exist without Ukraine. Volodymyr Viatrovych is a member of the parliament of Ukraine and is a prominent historian.
He lives in the suburb of Bucha, which the Russians attacked in the first days of the war. After the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Viatrovych sent his wife and son to western Ukraine for their safety.
He then drove to Kyiv for an emergency session of parliament, which declared martial law. He received a rifle that day so he could help defend the capital.
It was a day of high drama, and that war is still playing out. But as an historian, Viatrovych also sees the actions of President Vladimir Putin as part of a pattern of behavior by Russian leaders.
Because “if he’s losing a war, especially a war of his own making, he doesn’t survive,” he said. “The outcome may signal the end, not just of Putin’s era, but the era of the empire. It’s 21st century. It’s time for empires to go.”
Two Months After Ukraine’s Independence: The Kyiv House of Teachers and its Walls, the Oleh Building, and the Violation of World War II
In 1918, Ukraine declared independence from Russia, which was done in an elegant, whitewashed building in the center of Kyiv that still serves as the offices for the Kyiv House of Teachers.
Two months ago, a reminder of that history came. That’s when a Russian missile slammed into the street outside the Kyiv House of Teachers.
The blast blew out the windows, as well as parts of the glass ceiling in the hall where independence was declared in 1918. The windows have been boarded up. Shards of glass still cover the floor.
“I think there are parallels to a century ago” said Steshuk Oleh, the director of the House of Teachers. The building was damaged during the fighting. And now it’s damaged again. You don’t have to worry. We will rebuild everything.”
Andrew Weiss: The Fate of the Soviet Union and the Case for the Restoration of Ukraine’s Territoriality in the 21st Century
Andrew Weiss says that the reason why Ukrainians are fighting so hard today is because the Russian government crushed protests and rebellions during the Soviet era.
“If you look at all the hardships that Ukraine experienced in the 20th century, and they’re vast, this is the moment where all the wrongs of the last hundred plus years need to be redressed,” he said.
“I have said it before, but I want to say it again: Russia can be the only real guarantor of Ukraine’s territorial integrity,” Putin said earlier this month.
“You could say that the majority of Russian people, although they are weary of the conflict, they still see this as an existential struggle between Russia and the West in which Ukraine is being played for a pawn,” he tells NPR’s Morning Edition.
Kasparov was still living in Russia 15 years ago when he entered politics and challenged Putin’s hold on power. When it became clear his safety was at risk, he left Russia, and now lives in New York.
Many military analysts warn the war is unlikely to produce a clear resolution on the battlefield. They think it will require negotiations and compromises.
Ukrain’s war with Russia: a worldview from a geopolitician’s point of view in the aftermath of the invasion
That’s not a popular thought in the Ukranian people. The President and many citizens want the Russians to leave the country. Zelenskyy told Time magazine that they were dealing with a powerful state that was unwilling to let Ukraine go.
If Ukraine joined NATO, the region would be more stable, said Valeriy Chaly, a former ambassador to the United States. This is what Ukraine’s government wants, though joining the alliance is highly unlikely in the near term.
“Being a buffer zone or gray zone is not good from a geopolitical point of view,” he said. Everyone wants to take a step if you are in a gray zone. This has happened with Ukraine.”
A European Union cap on natural gas prices is expected to be announced, the latest move to tackle an energy crisis caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
On Tuesday, British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak makes his first appearance as prime minister before the Commons Liaison Committee, where the Ukraine war and other global issues are discussed. That follows Sunak’s meeting on Monday in Latvia with members of a U.K.-led European military force.
Russian news reports say that Putin and his Chinese counterpart will hold virtual talks in the middle of the month.
Ukrainians and Russians in Kiev: The First Day of the Kremlin-Ukraine War Between the EU and the U.S.
And Ukrainians and Russians are heading into their first Christmas or Hanukkah festivities since the Kremlin launched its full-on invasion of Ukraine in late February.
The International Atomic Energy Agency said Dec. 13 it made an agreement with Ukraine’s government to send nuclear safety and security experts to each of the country’s nuclear power plants.
An American was freed from Russian-controlled territory as part of a 65-person prisoner exchange. Suedi Murekezi told ABC News that he spent a lot of time in a basement and in a prison in eastern Ukraine.
EU lawmakers approved about $19 billion in financing for Ukraine, Dec. 14, and more sanctions on Russia. The aid package followed pledges earlier in the week from dozens of countries and global institutions to support more than $1 billion in winter relief funds for Ukraine, helping the country with power, heat, food and medical supplies.
After the Ukrainian President returned from Washington, D.C., the Kremlin was quick to criticize the trip.
He said there had been no calls for peace or signs of willingness to “listen to Russia’s concerns” during Zelenskyy’s visit, which he said proves that the U.S. is fighting a proxy war with Russia “to the last Ukrainian,” Reuters reports.
According to a Russian history professor, the Kremlin has been selling that line to the Russian public.
“Another provocative move by the U.S.” was warned last week by Moscow, as it expected the reported delivery of Patriot missiles to Ukraine would spark a Russian response.
She said that a defensive weapons system that would help the Ukranian military is called “patriotics.” She was referring to missiles and drones being sent by Russia to try and destroy Ukrainian infrastructure. If Russia doesn’t want their missiles shot down, then they shouldn’t send them into Ukraine.
Over the course of the past two months, Russia has been bombarding the Ukrainian power grid with missiles, taking down as much as 50% of the country’s electric infrastructure and sometimes leaving the country without power. In Kyiv, more than 200 miles west of the ongoing fighting in the region known as Donbas, Ukrainians are reduced to hunting for generators, storing food outside to prevent it from spoiling, charging their phones and computers during the few hours a day of reliable power, and keeping backup food and water supplies in apartment building elevators in case someone is trapped inside during a blackout. Water supplies have been paralyzed at times, too, along with portions of the country’s electrified rail system. And winter, with only a fraction of the country’s heating systems operational, still looms ahead.
Menon notes, however, that every one of his comments could just as easily apply to Russia’s earlier waves of cyberattacks on the country’s internet—such as the NotPetya malware released by Russia’s GRU hackers, which five years earlier destroyed the digital networks of hundreds of government agencies, banks, airports, hospitals, and even its radioactivity monitoring facility in Chernobyl. The goal is the same, but they are different in some aspects. “Demoralizing and punishing civilians.”
At the time, Putin claimed his force was embarking on a special military operation, and that it would last for a few weeks.
On the anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion, Mr. Zelensky offered a broad overview of where the war stood, the challenges Ukraine faced and the opportunities in the months ahead.
Yet the war has also fundamentally upended Russian life — rupturing a post-Soviet period in which the country pursued, if not always democratic reforms, then at least financial integration and dialogue with the West.
War Against Ukraine Has Left Russia Isolated and Struggling with More Tumult Ahedroscopes: The Story of Human Rights Defenders in the Dark
Draconian laws passed since February have outlawed criticism of the military or leadership. Nearly 20,000 people have been detained for demonstrating against the war — 45% of them women — according to a leading independent monitoring group.
Lengthy prison sentences have been meted out to high profile opposition voices on charges of “discrediting” the Russian army by questioning its conduct or strategy.
The people and organizations that are added to a list of “foreign agents” and “non-desirable” organizations intended to damage their reputation among the Russian public are just part of the oppressions.
The most prestigious Russian organization for human rights was forced to halt its activities due to alleged violations of the foreign agents law.
The state has also vastly expanded Russia’s already restrictive anti-LGBT laws, arguing the war in Ukraine reflects a wider attack on “traditional values.”
For now, repressions remain targeted. Some of the new laws are still unenforced. But few doubt the measures are intended to crush wider dissent — should the moment arise.
Leading independent media outlets and a handful of vibrant, online investigative startups were forced to shut down or relocate abroad when confronted with new “fake news” laws that criminalized contradicting the official government line.
Restrictions extend to internet users as well. American social media giants such as Twitter and Facebook were banned in March. Roskomnadzor, the Kremlin’s internet regulator, has blocked more than 100,000 websites since the start of the conflict.
There are still technical workarounds that allow Russians to get independent sources of information. But state media propaganda now blankets the airwaves favored by older Russians, with angry TV talk shows spreading conspiracies.
Source: https://www.npr.org/2022/12/31/1145981036/war-against-ukraine-has-left-russia-isolated-and-struggling-with-more-tumult-ahe
The Russian Exodus from the Cold War: Why is Russia still doing what it has done? Understanding Vladimir Putin’s frustrations and frustrations with the United States
Thousands of perceived government opponents — many of them political activists, civil society workers and journalists — left in the war’s early days amid concerns of persecution.
The biggest outflow of Russian men took place in September, when Putin ordered 300,000 more troops to be sent.
Putin believed it was good riddance because it was part of cleaning up Russian society from traitors and spies. Russian officials have suggested stripping those who left the country of their passports. Yet there are questions whether Russia can thrive without many of its best and brightest.
Meanwhile, some countries that have absorbed the Russian exodus predict their economies will grow, even as the swelling presence of Russians remains a sensitive issue to former Soviet republics in particular.
In the initial days of the invasion, Russia’s ruble currency cratered and its banking and trading markets looked shaky. McDonald’s and ExxonMobil, two of the world’s most well-known corporate brands, have stopped or scaled back operations in Russia.
Yet cracks are starting to show and they will widen over the next 12 months. The European Union spent over 100 billion dollars on fossil fuels in 2021. The bloc, which dramatically reduced its dependence on Russian natural gas last year, officially banned most imports of Russian crude oil by sea in December. It enacted a similar block on refined oil products this month.
Putin’s reputation for providing “stability” has been put in tatters by the economic damage, a blow to his support among Russians who remember the chaotic years after the fall of the USSR.
When it comes to Russia’s military campaign, there’s no outward change in the government’s tone. Each day, Russia’s Defense Ministry gives daily briefings on how the military works. Everything is going according to plan.
Yet the sheer length of the war — with no immediate Russian victory in sight — suggests Russia vastly underestimated Ukrainians’ willingness to resist.
The true number of Russian losses – officially at just under 6,000 men – remains a highly taboo subject at home. Western estimates put those figures much higher.
The ability of Russia to defend its own strategic infrastructure was put into question by a series of explosions, including along a key bridge connecting Russia to Crimea.
The fear of Russia going into NATO countries has not come close to happening according to DeSantis. I think they’ve become a third rate military power.
Longtime allies in Central Asia have criticized Russia’s actions out of concern for their own sovereignty, an affront that would have been unthinkable in Soviet times. India and China have been buying discounted Russian oil, but they have not given full support to Russia’s military campaign.
2022: The Big Story of Russia and the First Anniversary of the Uvalde, Texas, State of the Nation, Coverage of CNN Digital
A state of the nation address was originally slated for April but won’t happen until next year. Putin’s annual “direct line” — a media event in which Putin fields questions from ordinary Russians — was canceled outright.
An annual December big press conference, which allows the Russian leader to handle questions from pro-Kremlin media, has been tabled until 2023.
The Kremlin has given no reason for the delays. Many suspect it might be that, after 10 months of war and no sign of victory in sight, the Russian leader has finally run out of good news to share.
2022 was not just another year that tried patience and frayed nerves, it was historic and deadly. Russian President Vladimir Putin did what was unimaginable to many, launching the largest land war in Europe since World War II. All too common horrors were unleashed once more on American schoolchildren in Uvalde, Texas, and in many, many other mass shootings in the United States. luminary who brought light to our lives were not allowed to live.
When news breaks, the world comes to CNN, as it has for more than 40 years on television and more than 25 years on digital platforms. More than 165 million people came to CNN Digital from around the world in the month of February 2022, according to Comscore.
The war in Ukraine proved that our interests are global and our news coverage needs to be too as it dominated the year. Six of the top 10 stories were live stories from Ukraine, and 32 of the top 100 were live stories.
The impact on women’s lives and US politics of the overturning of the abortion law was a recurring top story.
U.S. Engagement During the Covid-19 Pandemic: From News to Power, Joys, Fortunes, Freedoms and Disasters
The last weeks of the year brought new concerns in China as interest and fear around Covid-19 waned. History has taught us that pandemic developments know no borders.
Entertainment news brought millions of you to CNN. Our top entertainment story was the tragic death of Stephen “tWitch” Boss, the amiable DJ for “The Ellen DeGeneres Show.” There were bright moments too: like the Good Samaritans that made a difference in the lives of strangers.
Our internal data shows that every piece of our Top 100 Stories list this year received more than 3 million visits.
Thank you for being here with us through it all. We promise that we will be here for you in 2023 for every breaking news story, every joy, and every triumph.
America has done this before. During the Cuban Missile Crisis, the most dangerous nuclear confrontation so far, the Soviet Union’s position shifted in a matter of days, ultimately accepting an outcome that favored the West. Had “red lines” thinking been in vogue, America might well have accepted an inferior compromise that weakened its security and credibility.
America should focus on three things. First of all, it should state explicitly that it will not provide weapons systems to support Ukraine, and that it will refrain from taking measures. Umbrarity is shown by making an unforced concession. Worse, it makes the war more risky because it will embolden Russia to look for and try to impose limits on U.S. actions.
A top Ukrainian national security official says Russia is planning a maximum increase in the war in Ukranian, which may happen within a few weeks.
Oleskyy Danilov, secretary of the Ukrainian National Security and Defense Council, told Sky News that the upcoming months would be defining in the war.
“February and March will be very active”, said a representative of Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence.
The ministry said military representatives from the two countries would practice planning for the use of troops based on prior experience of armed conflicts.
The U.S. State of the Union (SoCongress 2016) and the Status of the Ukrainian War in the Mid-Inflationary Era
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy made a surprise Europe tour, meeting leaders in London, Paris and Brussels, and reiterating his call for allies to send fighter jets to Ukraine.
Ukrainian Ambassador to the U.S. Oksana Markarova attended President Biden’s State of the Union speech, for the second year in a row, but the war in Ukraine received far less attention in the address this time.
Russian forces are unlikely to be better organized and more successful than they already are, so they might even send more troops into the meat grinder, says a British official.
There is skepticism on the Ukrainian side about the capabilities of the Russian forces even though officials have been sounding the alarm about new attacks in the East.
“They amassed enough manpower to take one or two small cities in Donbas, but that’s it,” a senior Ukrainian diplomat told CNN. They were trying to build a sense of panic in Ukraine, but it was overwhelming.
US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said Tuesday in Brussels that the US is not seeing Russia “massing its aircraft” ahead of an aerial operation against Ukraine.
Ahead of next week’s anniversary of the Russian invasion, US and Western leaders are gearing up for a show of unity and strength designed to establish once and for all that NATO is in the conflict for the long haul and until Moscow’s defeat.
The diplomatic offensive will intensify as VP Harris heads to the Security Conference this week. President Joe Biden will meanwhile visit Poland and a frontline NATO and ex-Warsaw pact state next week, bolstering his legacy of offering the most effective leadership of the Western alliance since the end of the Cold War.
The next phase of the war is seen as critical by western strategists as Russian forces prepare for an offensive andUkraine waits for the arrival of promised western tanks.
Some Republicans in the US House are hesitant. Florida GOP Rep. Matt Gaetz last week demanded an end to aid to Ukraine and for the US to demand all combatants “reach a peace agreement immediately.” There is a bipartisan majority in both the House and the Senate. But it’s not certain Biden can guarantee massive multi-billion dollar aid packages for Ukraine in perpetuity. And US aid might be in serious doubt if ex-President Donald Trump or another Republican wins the 2024 election.
The outside world knows that Putin does not have a plan to end the war, even though there is no diplomatic framework for talks.
There were not many signs that Putin’s determination is waning according to an expert speaking at a Senate hearing on Wednesday.
The idea of China leaning on Putin for the end of the war was out of the question before the balloon flight from China to the US.
So, there are many reasons why China – which has long seen the war in Ukraine through the prism of its rivalry with the US – may not be in a hurry to see the war in Ukraine end.
“You’re going to end up with an albatross around your neck,” Sherman said at an event at the Brookings Institution, though admitted the US was concerned about tightening ties between China and Russia at a time when it is locked in simultaneous showdowns with each power.
China’s first trip to Russia since the War of Lenin-Mills: a response to Europe’s outburst
China’s standard talking points include urging both sides to resume peace talks. It said that the only solution to the crisis was dialogue and negotiation, and that China will play a constructive role.
Territorial and sovereignty integrity of all countries will be respected in China’s proposal, Wang said, adding that Beijing will continue to work for peace.
China is hesitant about alienating Europe further, even though it did not condemn Russia’s war. China tried to get away from a fine line in the position paper.
Ursula von der Leyen was asked if she believed that China was listening to the message of Europe not to support Russia. “The opposite,” she said, has been seen so far.
The foreign ministry states that a Chinese official will visit Russia later this month in the first such trip since the war began.
Taiwan’s Foreign Minister Joseph Wu: How the U.S. and Ukraine will continue to march in the fight for a resolution of the American War Crimes
The United States and its major allies have been steadfast in their resolve to support Ukraine in its fight, and their people have largely accepted the enormous cost. The political resistance in the United States has been limited to the far right and far left. But questions will become only more common as the war drags on. Kevin McCarthy, the speaker of the House, a Republican and strong supporter of Ukraine, has said that there would be no blank check.
“This is something that leads me to the question – for whom do we document all these crimes?” The head of the Center for Civil Liberties told us. “Because I’m a human rights lawyer, I document human pain in order to get these Russians brought to justice, because I’m not a historian.”
Taiwan’s Foreign Minister Joseph Wu spoke with NPR’s Leila Fadel and said his country is learning from the war in Ukraine and keeping an eye on China.
They are expansionists. They want to continue to expand their sphere of influence. They want to keep increasing their power. And if they are not stopped, then they will continue to march on,” Wu told us.
Source: https://www.npr.org/2023/02/18/1157820509/ukraine-russia-war-anniversary
A Ukrainian family car in the line of fire during the first days of World War II: Natalie Blinken’s wife, Natalia, and Maxima
The result of aid and weapons supplied to Ukrainians by the West has global consequences. Victory by Russia could mean new rules to the world order that global powers have lived by to avoid a third world war.
“We’ve managed to avoid conflict between the great powers,” according to Secretary of State Antony Blinken. The system works despite it’s flaws. But now, it’s being challenged.”
Natalia believes the family car was in the line of fire from the Russians in the first days of the war. Her husband was killed, along with her 6-year-old nephew, Maxim. Vova was hospitalized with seven bullets in his body after the attack.
The audio for this story was produced by Danny Hajek; edited by Barrie Hardymon and Natalie Winston. Additional editing help was provided by Carol Klinger and several other people. Hanna Palamarenko and Tanya Ustova provided reporting and translation help.
State of the Union: What Do US Officials Know About the Ukraine and What Do They Mean to End Its Warfare? A View from the White House
The officials would not say what intelligence the US has seen suggesting a recent shift in China’s posture, but said US officials have been concerned enough that they have shared the intel with allies and partners.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken raised the issue when he met with his Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi, on Saturday on the sidelines of the conference, officials said.
“The Secretary was quite blunt in warning about the implications and consequences of China providing material support to Russia or assisting Russia with systematic sanctions evasion,” a senior State Department official told reporters.
This warfare can’t continue. Wang said at the conference that they should think about what they can do to end the warfare.
Chinese companies provide support to Russia for use in the Ukranian war, but there are no distinctions between the private and the state sectors in China.
We are concerned that they are considering providing lethal support. And we’ve made very clear to them that that would cause a serious problem for us and in our relationship,” he added.
Texas Rep. Mike McCaul, the chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, told CNN’s Pamela Brown on “State of the Union” in a joint interview with House Intelligence Chairman Mike Turner that aired Sunday that bipartisan support for Ukraine is “still very strong.”
Asked by Brown if he believes the US is considering sending F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine, McCaul replied, “I hope so,” and reiterated his concern over a drawn-out conflict between Russia and Ukraine while noting, “I think the momentum is building for this to happen.”
Turner referred to the resolution as a letter more than two dozen progressive House Democrats sent the White House requesting it to pursue diplomacy between Russia and Ukraine. The letter was taken down.
There are a few on both sides who have said they don’t support or who want support to end. “There are 435 members of Congress. 400 of them are for continuing this direction and path.
Bipartisanship and the Security of the United States: The case of a nuclear-capable hypersonic missile, as demonstrated by the Munich Security Conference
There is a lot of American parts in this balloon. We know that the hypersonic missile that went around the world with precision was built on the backbone of American technology,” McCaul said, referring to Beijing’s test of a nuclear-capable hypersonic missile in 2021.
“They steal a lot of this from us. But we don’t have to sell them the very technology they can put in their advanced weapons systems to then turn against either Taiwan in the Pacific or eventually, possibly the United States of America. There is great bipartisanship on this issue.
McCaul said that both Democrats and Republicans are against Chinese threats and want to confront them.
“I think we have a unique opportunity to be bipartisan on this issue of national security against one of the greatest threats to this country, and the world, for that matter,” McCaul said.
“No one, of course, wants a cold war, but that isn’t the issue. What we want is a China that is not going to be an aggressor state, that’s not going to be building up its military and threatening the United States, and certainly not making the negative comments that it’s making instead of just openly apologizing for sending a spy balloon over our most sensitive military sites,” Turner said.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy opened the Munich Security Conference, speaking via video link to attendees including German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, French President Emmanuel Macron and Vice President Kamala Harris. The vice president later told the gathering that Russia had committed “crimes against humanity.”
NATO defense ministers met in Brussels, where Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg urged a boost in ammunition to Ukraine, warning that the Kremlin is preparing for new offensives and attacks.
War crimes against the U.S. and Russians: Vladimir Putin’s speech in Kiev during the 2011 Ukrainian Crimes of Decay of Kyiv
The Russian government is operating a systematic network of at least 40 child custody centers for thousands of Ukrainian children, a potential war crime, a Yale University team reported.
Putin acknowledged Russia’s significant losses in the war and called on those present to stand for a moment of silence in their memory. The Russian leader also promised a range of social support packages for families of the fallen.
Missing from Putin’s address was any discussion of Russia’s significant setbacks on the battlefield and its evident failure in the early days of the war to occupy Kyiv and remove Ukraine’s democratically elected government.
Putin did not say how the fighting would end or what Russia’s goal was, but he did say there was a genocide taking place in eastern Ukraine.
Putin, for example, announced Tuesday that Russia would suspend participation in the New START nuclear treaty with the United States. It was not clear what practical impact this would have since Moscow has stopped fully implementing the deal.
Signed in 2010, New Start came into force in 2011, and was extended till 2026. Russia and the U.S. have the ability to deploy up to 25 strategic nuclear warheads. The countries have the majority of deployable warheads.
The agreement was put on hold to make sure neither side was cheating as a result of the PAIN. Russia postponed talks to restart those inspections, as relations between Moscow and Washington continued to deteriorate over Ukraine.
Putin also said he’d instructed his military and civilian atomic energy agency to be prepared to test additional nuclear weapons – should the U.S. carry out new tests first.
The U.S. Secretary of State described the decision as unfortunate and irresponsible. The U.S. has previously accused Russia of violating the last remaining nuclear arms treaty between the two countries.
Putin presented a now-familiar list of grievances against the West, including what he described as its moral and spiritual collapse whose values, he said, threaten the children of Russia. The head of the Russian Orthodox Church, Moscow Patriarch Kirill, was seated front-row center in the hall.
The Russian leader again equated Ukraine’s “neo Nazi” government with Nazi Germany, and said Russia was defending itself just as the Soviet Union defended its territory during World War II.
Today’s address also kickstarts a series of connected and choreographed events: Russian lawmakers gather for an extraordinary session of both chambers of parliament Wednesday, when Putin will also address a mass rally at Moscow’s largest stadium.
Exactly one year ago, the Russian leader called for international diplomatic efforts to preserve Ukraine’s territorial integrity and find a peaceful settlement to the conflict in the eastern part of the country.
Putin then assembled his National Security Council for a televised session to discuss the independence issue — now famous for the image of the Russian leader holding court across a vast hallway to consult with, in theory, his closest advisors.
“The Russian economy and system of government have turned out to be much stronger than the West believed,” Putin said in a speech to Russia’s parliament Tuesday.
According to a preliminary estimate, Russia’s economic output was down by 4.9% last year. But the hit was more limited than forecasters initially expected. When sanctions were first imposed, some economists predicted a contraction of 10% or 15%.
“The era of windfall profits from the oil and gas market for Russia is over,” Janis Kluge, an expert on Russia’s economy at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, told CNN.
The ruble is at its weakest level against the US dollar since April. The currency’s weakness has contributed to high inflation. And most businesses say they can’t conceive of growing right now given high levels of economic uncertainty, according to a recent survey by a Russian think tank.
Following Putin’s annexation of the peninsula of Crimea, Russia embarked on an effort to become self-sufficient. Through a policy called “Fortress Russia,” the government and policymakers increased domestic food production and forced banks to increase their reserves. Ash at Chatham House explained that it created a degree of resilience.
Russia, the world’s second-largest exporter of crude, was able to send barrels that would have gone to Europe to countries like China and India. According to the IEA, the European Union imported 3.3 million barrels of Russian crude and oil products per day as of November, while buying 2.3 million barrels per day.
The former deputy minister of finance said at an event hosted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies that it was a question of natural resources. He said the economy experienced a decline, but not a collapse.
The price of a barrel of the main blend of Russia’s crude oil fell to an average of $48 in January, following a Europe’s oil embargo and Group of Seven price cap. The global benchmark stood at $82. That suggests that customers like India and China, seeing a smaller pool of interested buyers, are negotiating greater discounts. Russia’s 2023 budget is based on a Urals price of more than $70 per barrel.
Finding new buyers for processed oil products, which are also subject to new embargoes and price caps, won’t be easy either. Ben McWilliams said India and China prefer to buy crude oil from each other.
The Russian Economy in Ukraine: What will it be? A note from a client of the Russian Institute at King’s College London to celebrate 25 years of Russia
According to the director of the Russia Institute at King’s College London, whatever energy resources are obtained they will be used for military needs.
The International Monetary Fund still expects Russia’s economy to expand by 0.3% this year and 2.1% the next. There is an outlook for what happens in Ukraine.
The war will determine whether or not the economy shrinks or expands in the year 2023, according to a note to clients on Tuesday. Shortages of workers tied to military conscript and emigration pose a major risk, she said.
Sectors that rely on imports have been particularly vulnerable. Domestic car makers such as Avtovaz, which manufactures the iconic Ladas, have struggled with shortages of key components and materials.
Last year, several companies in Russia halted production and began to sell their local assets as the Russian auto industry was already weakened. Chinese firms have stepped up their presence, part of a broader trend. Even so, sales of new cars dropped 63% year-over-year in January, according to the Association of European Businesses.
Source: https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/22/business/russia-economy-ukraine-anniversary/index.html
The New Era of China and the US: a Foreign Policy Perspective after the Crimes of September 11, 2001, and the First Reionization of the Cold War
“In normal times, we might have said that the population would protest against that,” Sharafutdinova said. “But of course, these are not normal times.”
A new era of US confrontations with Russia and China have been underscored by President Joe Biden’s trip to mark the anniversary of the war in Ukraine.
“The China-Russia relationship has stood the test of the drastic changes in the world landscape and become mature and tenacious,” Wang told Putin, according to a Chinese foreign ministry read-out from the meeting.
Wang told Putin that the two nations often face “crisis and chaos, but there are always opportunities in a crisis and the latter could possibly turn into the former.”
And this new and complicated foreign policy picture is not just a problem for American diplomats. As the United States and Western nations deplete their weapons stocks in order to aid the Ukrainian military, questions about military capacity and whether current spending is sufficient are raised. Republicans are accusing Biden of ignoring voters who are facing economic and other problems, even as he tries to convince the public Democrats are protectors of working Americans.
And Biden vowed, “President Putin’s craven lust for land and power will fail, and the Ukrainian people’s love for their country will prevail,” he added.
To Western ears, Putin seems to be living in an alternative reality. Biden said that he spoke to the people of Russia. The United States and the nations of Europe do not seek to control or destroy Russia. The West was not plotting to attack Russia, as Putin said today.”
Biden’s trip also demonstrated that the estrangement between the US and Russia – a factor that will shape global politics for years – is almost complete.
Given that its economy is struggling, and its conventional forces are under extreme pressure, Russia also lacks resources to ignite a new nuclear arms race with Washington. But the collapse of one of the last building blocks of a post-Cold War thaw between Russia and the US exemplifies the almost total lack of communication between the rivals.
Even if the war in Ukraine ends, there will not be a return to normal relations between the US and Russia.
It is dangerous when the top two nuclear powers aren’t talking and Washington is willing to discuss the situation with Russia no matter what else is happening.
US Ambassador to the United Nations Linda Thomas-Greenfield said on CNN that it was a redline for the US to use military force against Syria but did not specify what consequences might arise.
The Crimes of War: A State of the Art and a Time in the Life of a War-Destroyed World, Revisited
More than eight million people have left the Ukranian territory since the beginning of the year, the World Health Organization says. Many have been involuntarily relocated by Russia. Others have put a strain on resources, as well as schools and hospitals, in Poland and Germany.
The world is in the grip of a 21st century war in Europe, driven by a nuclear power. It has made NATO and the European Union uneasy, forcing them to take sides in ways that have led to diplomatic shifts. For example, Turkey, despite being a NATO member, has increased trade with Russia since the start of the war and has thrown up objections to allowing Sweden and Finland into the alliance.
Will Chase, Alex Leff, Pam Webster, and Desiree F. HIcks contributed to the report. The work by Alina Selyukh builds on previous work by other people.
But the Chinese position paper also took several digs at the West for its approach to the war. It believes that the abandonment of a cold war mentality is needed, because it says that sanctions only create more problems.
“Conflict and war benefit no one. All parties must stay rational and exercise restraint, avoid fanning the flames and aggravating tensions, and prevent the crisis from deteriorating further or even spiraling out of control,” the paper said.
Cold War mentality should end tomorrow: China should do everything in its power to stop the war in Ukraine, Zhanna Leshchynska said
Western officials fear that China may give Russia lethal military assistance, an accusation denied by Beijing.
The document appears to be about targeting the West. In a thinly veiled criticism of the United States, the paper said, “Cold War mentality” should be abandoned.
It also appears to criticize the wide-ranging economic sanctions imposed by the US and other Western countries on Russia. “Unilateral sanctions and maximum pressure cannot solve the issue; they only create new problems,” it said. There is a case to be made that countries need to do their share in deflating the Ukraine crisis if they wish to be taken seriously by other countries.
Jake Sullivan, the US national security advisor, said in the paper that the war could end tomorrow as long as Russia stopped attacking Ukraine.
“China should do everything in its power to stop the war and restore peace in Ukraine and urge Russia to withdraw its troops,” Ukraine’s Chargé d’Affaires to China Zhanna Leshchynska said at the same briefing in Beijing.
She said that China should talk to both sides of the issue, because it’s now clear that they are not talking to Ukraine.
Wang said that this requires us to identify changes more quickly and respond more actively to the changes.
Wang Yi: It’s not a diplomatic crisis, but it’s a basic principle. Why do we care about China? How did China try to help Ukraine?
This week, Beijing also sent its top diplomat, Wang Yi, to Moscow where he met with Russia’s president Vladimir Putin among other Russian officials and reiterated the only way to resolve the crisis was through diplomatic negotiation.
There is not much leverage involved. The document lays out broad, general principles, but no real reason why you might want to cease and desist, right? There’s no big appeal that you’re getting something. There’s no big cost if you don’t comply,” said Ian Chong, associate professor of political science at National University of Singapore.
President Zelensky spoke for hours at a news conference in a basement in the heart of the Ukrainian capital, he believed that he could win the war this year and hoped China wouldn’t give lethal military.
Not one to shrink from questions or to shy away from calling out even allies if he feels they could be doing more to help Ukraine, he nevertheless tread carefully when talking about China.
Mr. Zelensky initially ignored the question about the reports that Beijing was considering giving Moscow lethal weapons. When it was raised a second time, he said that working to ensure China did not arm Russia was one of his top priorities.
Mr Zelensky explained to the reporter that the question was not about geography or geopolitics but about basic principles.
Vladimir Zelensky: the most sad aspect of the Russian war with Ukraine, and how Israel and Ukraine will respond to the Israeli government and the United States
Does China believe that innocents should not be killed? Is a nuclear power plant not a good idea? That respect for the sovereign rights of a nation means an invader should withdraw?
After saying that he is already beginning public diplomatic relations, he switched to English to stress his openness to direct talks with China. We have so many issues we need to talk to each other.
Iran is already providing attack drones to Russia, and the West has warned the Moscow is also seeking to acquire ballistic missiles. Mr. Zelensky was asked about the state of Israel. He was asked why Israel and Ukraine were not stronger allies.
He said that he understood Israel’s long and complex history with Russia but said that he had wished for Israel to take a firmer stance against it since the start of the war.
There were hard questions about possible internal disputes in his government. There was also a journalist from Azerbaijan who simply wanted a selfie with the Ukrainian leader, for his son. (Mr. Zelensky obliged.)
The Ukrainian leader said he was the most sad aspect of the war for him, because he had never seen the atrocities committed by the Russian soldiers. He said that it was horrible.
Questions about how and when Ukraine could win the war, were the most frequent over 2 hours, even though the answer would be determined on the battlefield.
The armies don’t look like they did at the beginning of the war. Both have taken heavy losses. Kofman is an expert on the Russian military at the Center for Naval Analyses.
According to analyst Dmitri Alperovitch, a key reason why Russia failed is they didn’t send enough troops to capture and hold large parts of Ukraine.
At the beginning, they didn’t have enough troops, but they had lots of equipment, so now they may not have enough equipment to execute a successful campaign.
First, it burned through massive amounts of ammunition at an unsustainable rate, according to many analysts. Second, Russia lost half its tanks in the past year, according to a recent U.S. Defense Department estimate.
However, because Russia retreated from a good deal of Ukrainian territory last fall, “the Russian military substantially reduced the amount of territory they have to defend,” he said. That means that the military has much more force density. They have some of the highest lines. They have reserves.”
So Russia may be relatively well positioned to defend its current strongholds in the eastern region of the Donbas and the southern peninsula of Crimea.
“I think it will be difficult for the Ukrainians to make rapid progress,” he said. “Unless the Russian line just collapses, I think it’s going to be difficult to see the type of lightning offensives that we saw last year.”
Both sides have displayed great skill at combined arms. If you are going to take these fortified positions, you need both sides to have air superiority.
Both sides are likely to embark on offensives. In fact, a Russian one appears to be underway in the east, and Russian forces have already suffered one resounding defeat around the town of Vuhledar.
The aid from the U.S. and Europe has been much better than expected. Just last month, Western countries pledged the biggest military assistance package yet, including, for the first time, tanks.
“I do think at some point, Western support will start fraying, especially as the political winds change in the U.S.,” Ioffe said, pointing to a group of Republicans in the U.S. House who are questioning U.S. aid.
“You are seeing these reassertions of an isolationist kind of ‘America First’ sentiment of, ‘Why are we in this fight? Why are we sending a blank check to Ukraine? We shouldn’t be doing this,’” she added.
“The main issue is not actually the will to support the Ukrainians on the Western side. “It’s the ability to do so,” he said. The production capacity of the collective West does not match that of the rate at which the Ukrainians are doing it.
Detention for demonstrations against the war in Ukraine: a joint hearing of the House subcommittee on defense appropriations and the Senate armed services committee
The House subcommittee on defense appropriations and the Senate armed services committee are both holding hearings on Tuesday about the war in Ukraine.
More than 50 people were jailed for protesting in several cities against the war, with one independent Russian publication reporting that they were taken away to be put to death.